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Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GIOVANNA-12 from 10/02/2012 00:00 UTC to 21/02/2012 00:00 UTC
Summary
Tropical Cyclone impact
Storm surge
Extreme rain
Media analysis
Data Resources
Storm surge for tropical cyclone GIOVANNA-12
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Orange alert for storm surge impact in Madagascar

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 12 of tropical cyclone GIOVANNA-12 issued at 14 Feb 2012 12:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 28199).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 640 thousand
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 4
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 232 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  1.7m in Vohitramposina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 13 Feb 2012 23:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Show forecast grid

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open
Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Feb 2012 23:00:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  1.7m
13 Feb 2012 22:00:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  1.3m
13 Feb 2012 23:00:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  1.2m
13 Feb 2012 22:00:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  1.1m
13 Feb 2012 22:00:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  1.1m
13 Feb 2012 22:00:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.7m
13 Feb 2012 23:00:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.7m
13 Feb 2012 20:00:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.5m
13 Feb 2012 21:00:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.5m
13 Feb 2012 23:00:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.5m
13 Feb 2012 23:00:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.5m
13 Feb 2012 23:00:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.5m
14 Feb 2012 00:00:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.5m
13 Feb 2012 23:00:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.4m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 237)
Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 14 Feb 2012 12:00:00.
(Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.