Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MAYSAK-15
in Philippines
01 Apr 2015 00 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone MAYSAK-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Philippines
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 259 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (05 Apr 02:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Philippines)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 204 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 259 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      204 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 3.6 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 27 Mar 2015 00:00 167 60 thousand 10 thousand Palau
        Green 2 27 Mar 2015 06:00 185 60 thousand 1 thousand
        Green 3 27 Mar 2015 12:00 185 60 thousand 1 thousand
        Green 4 27 Mar 2015 18:00 185 60 thousand 1 thousand
        Green 5 28 Mar 2015 00:00 213 60 thousand 2 thousand
        Green 6 28 Mar 2015 06:00 222 60 thousand 10 thousand
        Green 7 28 Mar 2015 12:00 222 60 thousand 20 thousand
        Green 8 28 Mar 2015 18:00 222 60 thousand 10 thousand
        Green 9 29 Mar 2015 00:00 222 60 thousand 60 thousand
        Green 10 29 Mar 2015 06:00 222 60 thousand 60 thousand
        Green 11 29 Mar 2015 12:00 222 60 thousand 60 thousand
        Green 12 29 Mar 2015 18:00 222 60 thousand 60 thousand
        Green 13 30 Mar 2015 00:00 222 60 thousand 60 thousand
        Green 14 30 Mar 2015 06:00 222 60 thousand 50 thousand
        Green 15 30 Mar 2015 12:00 222 180 thousand 50 thousand Philippines
        Green 16 30 Mar 2015 18:00 259 200 thousand 50 thousand Philippines
        Green 17 31 Mar 2015 00:00 259 460 thousand 50 thousand Philippines
        Orange 18 31 Mar 2015 06:00 194 35.3 million 370 thousand Philippines
        Orange 19 31 Mar 2015 12:00 194 46.3 million 6.1 million Philippines
        Orange 20 31 Mar 2015 18:00 204 51.7 million 7.6 million Philippines
        Red 21 01 Apr 2015 00:00 204 18.5 million 3.6 million Philippines

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 27 Mar 2015 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 6.8, 158
          GREEN
          		 2 27 Mar 2015 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 7, 157.4 Micronesia, Federated States of
          GREEN
          		 3 27 Mar 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people <1000 people 7.4, 156.6
          GREEN
          		 4 27 Mar 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people <1000 people 7.5, 155.9
          GREEN
          		 5 28 Mar 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 36000 people 7.6, 154.9
          GREEN
          		 6 28 Mar 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 46000 people 7.6, 154.6
          GREEN
          		 7 28 Mar 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 111 42000 people 47000 people 7.5, 153.5
          GREEN
          		 8 28 Mar 2015 18:00 Category 1 120 41000 people 48000 people 7.3, 152.8
          GREEN
          		 9 29 Mar 2015 00:00 Category 1 130 46000 people 49000 people 7.3, 151.8
          GREEN
          		 10 29 Mar 2015 06:00 Category 1 139 <1000 people 48000 people 7.6, 150.9
          GREEN
          		 11 29 Mar 2015 12:00 Category 1 148 <1000 people 2900 people 8, 149.7
          GREEN
          		 12 29 Mar 2015 18:00 Category 2 157 <1000 people 2300 people 8.1, 148.3
          GREEN
          		 13 30 Mar 2015 00:00 Category 2 157 <1000 people 1200 people 8.4, 146.9
          GREEN
          		 14 30 Mar 2015 06:00 Category 2 167 <1000 people <1000 people 8.8, 145.8
          GREEN
          		 15 30 Mar 2015 12:00 Category 2 176 <1000 people <1000 people 9, 144.8
          GREEN
          		 16 30 Mar 2015 18:00 Category 4 231 <1000 people 1000 people 9.4, 143.7
          GREEN
          		 17 31 Mar 2015 00:00 Category 4 231 1000 people 7900 people 9.6, 142.5
          GREEN
          		 18 31 Mar 2015 06:00 Category 5 259 1000 people 11000 people 10, 141.3
          GREEN
          		 19 31 Mar 2015 12:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people 11000 people 10.2, 139.9
          GREEN
          		 20 31 Mar 2015 18:00 Category 5 259 no people 11000 people 10.3, 138.7
          GREEN
          		 21 01 Apr 2015 00:00 Category 5 259 no people 9600 people 10.7, 137.7
          GREEN
          		 21 01 Apr 2015 12:00 Category 5 278 no people no people 11.5, 135.5
          GREEN
          		 21 02 Apr 2015 00:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 12.3, 133.7
          GREEN
          		 21 02 Apr 2015 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13, 132
          GREEN
          		 21 03 Apr 2015 00:00 Category 4 241 no people 190000 people 13.7, 130.3 Philippines
          RED
          		 21 04 Apr 2015 00:00 Category 3 204 240000 people 14 million people 14.9, 126.1 Philippines
          ORANGE
          		 21 05 Apr 2015 00:00 Category 2 167 3.6 million people 17.3 million people 16.3, 122.2 Philippines
          GREEN
          		 21 06 Apr 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.7, 118.4
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Philippines

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Southern Tagalog Philippines
          Cagayan Valley Philippines
          Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines
          Ilocos Philippines

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Santiago Cagayan Valley Philippines City 110000 people
          Baguio Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines City 270000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Ulithi ULI 2 0
          Truk International TKK 3 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
          Cauayan CYZ 61 Civ. Paved No 5700
          Mrmp 117 0
          Bagabag 249 Civ. Paved No 3200
          Loakan BAG 1292 Civ. Paved No 5500
          San Fernando SFE 4 Civ. Paved No 3900

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Fais Micronesia
          Moen Micronesia
          Casiguaran Philippines
          San Fernando PHSFE Philippines
          Poro / San Fernando PHPRO Philippines
          Port San Esteban Philippines

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Magat Magat 1983
          Binga Agno 1959
          Ambuklao Agno 1955
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.1 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Casiguran, Philippines. This height is estimated for 05 Apr 2015 02:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (59 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 37 of 05 Apr 2015 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Apr 2015 02:00 Casiguran Philippines  0.1
          05 Apr 2015 02:00 Pasaruboy Philippines  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 21:00 Jinghai China  0.1
          05 Apr 2015 02:00 Diniyog Philippines  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 16:00 Daitou China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 21:00 Changqingwei China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 21:00 Tianqian China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 21:00 Zhelang China  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 03:00 Jieshi China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 21:00 Hudong China  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Wa Fu Estate Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Kennedy Town Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Aberdeen Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Won Hang Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Tain Sha Tsui Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Central Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Wan Chai Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Chung Hom Kok Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 North Point Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Chek Chue Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Tai Tam Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Stanley Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 San Wan Ho Shau Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 A Kung Ngam Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Chai Wan Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Hok Tsui Wan Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Chik Sha Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Tei Tong Tsui Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Tai Wan Tau Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 04:00 Luzui China  0.1
          31 Mar 2015 20:00 Colonia Micronesia  0.1
          05 Apr 2015 02:00 Dinapigui Philippines  0.1
          05 Apr 2015 01:00 Tarigtig Pt Philippines  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 21:00 Haimen China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 18:00 Shantou China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 18:00 Dahao China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 18:00 Aotou China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 16:00 Guangao China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 18:00 Siwei China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 18:00 Houzhai China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 18:00 Shenao China  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 00:00 Jiazi China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 21:00 Shenquan China  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 03:00 Jiesheng China  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 10:00 Lo Tik Wan Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 10:00 Lo So Shing Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 10:00 Pok Fu Lam Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          05 Apr 2015 14:00 Patro Philippines  0.1
          05 Apr 2015 14:00 Cabugao Philippines  0.1
          05 Apr 2015 14:00 Binacud Philippines  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 17:00 Huanglong China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 17:00 Raoping China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 17:00 Zhelin China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 21:00 Donghong China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 21:00 Pinghai China  0.1
          06 Apr 2015 21:00 Gangkou China  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Long Ke Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 10:00 Ham Tin Hong Kong (China)  0.1
          07 Apr 2015 09:00 Shagang China  0.1