Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MAYSAK-15 in Philippines from 27 Mar 2015 00:00 UTC to 05 Apr 2015 12:00 UTC

05 Apr 2015 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MAYSAK-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Philippines
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (05 Apr 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Philippines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	65 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	259 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 5.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	27 Mar 2015 00:00	167	60 thousand	10 thousand	Palau
2	27 Mar 2015 06:00	185	60 thousand	1 thousand
3	27 Mar 2015 12:00	185	60 thousand	1 thousand
4	27 Mar 2015 18:00	185	60 thousand	1 thousand
5	28 Mar 2015 00:00	213	60 thousand	2 thousand
6	28 Mar 2015 06:00	222	60 thousand	10 thousand
7	28 Mar 2015 12:00	222	60 thousand	20 thousand
8	28 Mar 2015 18:00	222	60 thousand	10 thousand
9	29 Mar 2015 00:00	222	60 thousand	60 thousand
10	29 Mar 2015 06:00	222	60 thousand	60 thousand
11	29 Mar 2015 12:00	222	60 thousand	60 thousand
12	29 Mar 2015 18:00	222	60 thousand	60 thousand
13	30 Mar 2015 00:00	222	60 thousand	60 thousand
14	30 Mar 2015 06:00	222	60 thousand	50 thousand
15	30 Mar 2015 12:00	222	180 thousand	50 thousand	Philippines
16	30 Mar 2015 18:00	259	200 thousand	50 thousand	Philippines
17	31 Mar 2015 00:00	259	460 thousand	50 thousand	Philippines
18	31 Mar 2015 06:00	194	35.3 million	370 thousand	Philippines
19	31 Mar 2015 12:00	194	46.3 million	6.1 million	Philippines
20	31 Mar 2015 18:00	204	51.7 million	7.6 million	Philippines
21	01 Apr 2015 00:00	204	18.5 million	3.6 million	Philippines
22	01 Apr 2015 06:00	167	20.5 million	3.6 million	Philippines
23	01 Apr 2015 12:00	167	14.7 million	3.4 million	Philippines
24	01 Apr 2015 18:00	120	13.6 million	1.6 million	Philippines
25	02 Apr 2015 00:00	139	10.5 million	1.2 million	Philippines
26	02 Apr 2015 06:00	139	8.4 million	2.2 million	Philippines
27	02 Apr 2015 12:00	194	7 million	50 thousand	Philippines
28	02 Apr 2015 18:00	185	7.4 million	50 thousand	Philippines
29	03 Apr 2015 00:00	176	7.5 million	50 thousand	Philippines
30	03 Apr 2015 06:00	157	7.2 million	50 thousand	Philippines
31	03 Apr 2015 12:00	120	8.2 million	200 thousand	Philippines
32	03 Apr 2015 18:00	120	11.2 million	1.7 million	Philippines
33	04 Apr 2015 00:00	130	13 million	460 thousand	Philippines
34	04 Apr 2015 06:00	120	6.8 million	50 thousand	Philippines
35	04 Apr 2015 12:00	111	6.3 million	50 thousand	Philippines
36	04 Apr 2015 18:00	102	6.7 million	50 thousand	Philippines
37	05 Apr 2015 00:00	83	5.3 million	50 thousand	Philippines
38	05 Apr 2015 06:00	65	5.2 million	50 thousand	Philippines
39	05 Apr 2015 12:00	65	5.3 million	50 thousand	Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	27 Mar 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	6.8, 158
2	27 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	7, 157.4	Micronesia, Federated States of
3	27 Mar 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	<1000 people	7.4, 156.6
4	27 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	<1000 people	7.5, 155.9
5	28 Mar 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	36000 people	7.6, 154.9
6	28 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	46000 people	7.6, 154.6
7	28 Mar 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	111	42000 people	47000 people	7.5, 153.5
8	28 Mar 2015 18:00	Category 1	120	41000 people	48000 people	7.3, 152.8
9	29 Mar 2015 00:00	Category 1	130	46000 people	49000 people	7.3, 151.8
10	29 Mar 2015 06:00	Category 1	139	<1000 people	48000 people	7.6, 150.9
11	29 Mar 2015 12:00	Category 1	148	<1000 people	2900 people	8, 149.7
12	29 Mar 2015 18:00	Category 2	157	<1000 people	2300 people	8.1, 148.3
13	30 Mar 2015 00:00	Category 2	157	<1000 people	1200 people	8.4, 146.9
14	30 Mar 2015 06:00	Category 2	167	<1000 people	<1000 people	8.8, 145.8
15	30 Mar 2015 12:00	Category 2	176	<1000 people	<1000 people	9, 144.8
16	30 Mar 2015 18:00	Category 4	231	<1000 people	1000 people	9.4, 143.7
17	31 Mar 2015 00:00	Category 4	231	1000 people	7900 people	9.6, 142.5
18	31 Mar 2015 06:00	Category 5	259	1000 people	11000 people	10, 141.3
19	31 Mar 2015 12:00	Category 5	259	<1000 people	11000 people	10.2, 139.9
20	31 Mar 2015 18:00	Category 5	259	no people	11000 people	10.3, 138.7
21	01 Apr 2015 00:00	Category 5	259	no people	9600 people	10.7, 137.7
22	01 Apr 2015 06:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	11.2, 136.5
23	01 Apr 2015 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	11.6, 135.6
24	01 Apr 2015 18:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	12.1, 134.7
25	02 Apr 2015 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	12.4, 133.9
26	02 Apr 2015 06:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	12.8, 133.3
27	02 Apr 2015 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	13.2, 132.6
28	02 Apr 2015 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	13.7, 131.9
29	03 Apr 2015 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	14.1, 131.1
30	03 Apr 2015 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	14.1, 130
31	03 Apr 2015 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	14.2, 129.1
32	03 Apr 2015 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	91000 people	14.4, 127.8	Philippines
33	04 Apr 2015 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	300000 people	14.6, 126.5	Philippines
34	04 Apr 2015 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	260000 people	15.2, 125.2	Philippines
35	04 Apr 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	3.3 million people	15.7, 124.2	Philippines
36	04 Apr 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	5.8 million people	15.8, 123.3	Philippines
37	05 Apr 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	5.2 million people	16.4, 122.5	Philippines
38	05 Apr 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	5.1 million people	16.9, 121.6	Philippines
39	05 Apr 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.6 million people	17.7, 120.5	Philippines
39	06 Apr 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	19.1, 118.5
39	06 Apr 2015 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	20.1, 117.4
39	07 Apr 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	20.5, 116.5
39	07 Apr 2015 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	20.6, 115.8
39	08 Apr 2015 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	19.2, 114.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Philippines

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Ilocos	Philippines
Cordillera Administrative Region	Philippines
Cagayan Valley	Philippines
Southern Tagalog	Philippines

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
San Nicolas	Ilocos	Philippines	City	20000 people
Laoag	Ilocos	Philippines	City	100000 people
Bacarra	Ilocos	Philippines	City	9600 people
Tuguegarao	Cagayan Valley	Philippines	City	110000 people
Cabagan	Cagayan Valley	Philippines	City	25000 people
Santiago	Cagayan Valley	Philippines	City	110000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vigan		4	Civ.	Paved	No	3400
Laoag International	LAO	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7900
Tuguegarao	TUG	21	Civ.	Paved	No	5900
Mrmp		117				0
Bagabag		249	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Cauayan	CYZ	61	Civ.	Paved	No	5700
Palanan		50	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Yap International	YAP	28	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
Ulithi	ULI	2				0
Truk International	TKK	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Salomague		Philippines
Pandan		Philippines
Gan Bay		Philippines
Port San Esteban		Philippines
Laoag	PHLAO	Philippines
Dirique Inlet		Philippines
Palanan		Philippines
Casiguaran		Philippines
Colonia		Micronesia
Fais		Micronesia
Moen		Micronesia

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Magat	Magat	1983

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Casiguran, Philippines. This height is estimated for 05 Apr 2015 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (59 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 37 of 05 Apr 2015 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Apr 2015 02:00	Casiguran	Philippines	0.1
	05 Apr 2015 02:00	Pasaruboy	Philippines	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 21:00	Jinghai	China	0.1
	05 Apr 2015 02:00	Diniyog	Philippines	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 16:00	Daitou	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 21:00	Changqingwei	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 21:00	Tianqian	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 21:00	Zhelang	China	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 03:00	Jieshi	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 21:00	Hudong	China	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Wa Fu Estate	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Kennedy Town	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Aberdeen	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Won Hang	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Tain Sha Tsui	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Central	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Wan Chai	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Chung Hom Kok	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	North Point	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Chek Chue	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Tai Tam	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Stanley	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	San Wan Ho Shau	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	A Kung Ngam	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Chai Wan	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Hok Tsui Wan	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Chik Sha	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Tei Tong Tsui	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Tai Wan Tau	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 04:00	Luzui	China	0.1
	31 Mar 2015 20:00	Colonia	Micronesia	0.1
	05 Apr 2015 02:00	Dinapigui	Philippines	0.1
	05 Apr 2015 01:00	Tarigtig Pt	Philippines	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 21:00	Haimen	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 18:00	Shantou	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 18:00	Dahao	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 18:00	Aotou	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 16:00	Guangao	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 18:00	Siwei	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 18:00	Houzhai	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 18:00	Shenao	China	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 00:00	Jiazi	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 21:00	Shenquan	China	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 03:00	Jiesheng	China	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 10:00	Lo Tik Wan	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 10:00	Lo So Shing	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 10:00	Pok Fu Lam	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	05 Apr 2015 14:00	Patro	Philippines	0.1
	05 Apr 2015 14:00	Cabugao	Philippines	0.1
	05 Apr 2015 14:00	Binacud	Philippines	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 17:00	Huanglong	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 17:00	Raoping	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 17:00	Zhelin	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 21:00	Donghong	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 21:00	Pinghai	China	0.1
	06 Apr 2015 21:00	Gangkou	China	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Long Ke	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 10:00	Ham Tin	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	07 Apr 2015 09:00	Shagang	China	0.1