Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ULA-16
Off-shore
12 Jan 2016 18 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ULA-16 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries
    Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 231 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (02 Jan 22:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability --

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 65 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 231 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      65 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 67000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 30 Dec 2015 06:00 139 --- No people Tonga
        Green 2 30 Dec 2015 18:00 139 --- No people Tonga
        Green 3 31 Dec 2015 06:00 148 --- No people Fiji, Tonga
        Green 4 31 Dec 2015 18:00 204 --- No people Tonga, American Samoa
        Orange 5 01 Jan 2016 06:00 176 --- 20 thousand Tonga
        Green 6 01 Jan 2016 18:00 139 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 7 02 Jan 2016 06:00 157 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 8 02 Jan 2016 18:00 167 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 9 03 Jan 2016 06:00 157 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 10 03 Jan 2016 18:00 157 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 11 04 Jan 2016 06:00 130 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 12 04 Jan 2016 18:00 120 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 13 05 Jan 2016 06:00 102 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 14 05 Jan 2016 18:00 83 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 15 06 Jan 2016 06:00 65 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 16 06 Jan 2016 18:00 74 --- No people Niue, Tonga
        Green 17 07 Jan 2016 06:00 93 --- No people Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga
        Green 18 07 Jan 2016 18:00 120 --- No people Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga
        Green 19 08 Jan 2016 06:00 120 --- No people Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga
        Green 20 08 Jan 2016 18:00 204 --- No people New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga
        Green 21 09 Jan 2016 06:00 185 --- No people Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga
        Green 22 09 Jan 2016 18:00 231 --- No people New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga
        Green 23 10 Jan 2016 06:00 213 --- No people New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga
        Green 24 10 Jan 2016 18:00 194 --- No people
        Green 25 11 Jan 2016 06:00 167 --- No people Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga
        Green 26 11 Jan 2016 18:00 120 --- No people Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga
        Green 27 12 Jan 2016 06:00 93 --- No people Vanuatu, Tonga, Niue
        Green 28 12 Jan 2016 18:00 65 No people No people

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 30 Dec 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -12, -166.5
          GREEN
          		 2 30 Dec 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -15.3, -167.1
          GREEN
          		 3 31 Dec 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -15.5, -169
          GREEN
          		 4 31 Dec 2015 18:00 Category 2 167 no people 30000 people -16.1, -169.9 American Samoa
          ORANGE
          		 5 01 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 2 167 17000 people 29000 people -17.4, -171.4 Tonga
          GREEN
          		 6 01 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 1 139 no people 110000 people -18.2, -174 Tonga
          GREEN
          		 7 02 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -18.5, -176.4
          GREEN
          		 8 02 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -19.2, -177.7
          GREEN
          		 9 03 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -20.5, -179
          GREEN
          		 10 03 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -21.7, 179.9
          GREEN
          		 11 04 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -22.3, 179.2
          GREEN
          		 12 04 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -22, 178.1
          GREEN
          		 13 05 Jan 2016 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -21.8, 177.6
          GREEN
          		 14 05 Jan 2016 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -21, 177.1
          GREEN
          		 15 06 Jan 2016 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -20.3, 176.3
          GREEN
          		 16 06 Jan 2016 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -19.5, 175.6
          GREEN
          		 17 07 Jan 2016 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -19, 175
          GREEN
          		 18 07 Jan 2016 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -18.7, 174.5
          GREEN
          		 19 08 Jan 2016 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -18.4, 174.2
          GREEN
          		 20 08 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -18.6, 173.7
          GREEN
          		 21 09 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18.9, 172.9
          GREEN
          		 22 09 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 4 213 no people 28000 people -19.4, 171.8 Vanuatu
          GREEN
          		 23 10 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 4 213 no people 34000 people -20.5, 170.6 Vanuatu
          GREEN
          		 24 10 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 3 194 no people no people -22.1, 170.1
          GREEN
          		 25 11 Jan 2016 06:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -24, 170.1
          GREEN
          		 26 11 Jan 2016 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -26.1, 170.9
          GREEN
          		 27 12 Jan 2016 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -28.3, 172.7
          GREEN
          		 28 12 Jan 2016 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -29.5, 175.3
          GREEN
          		 28 13 Jan 2016 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -29.8, 177.6
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Provinces

          Country Region Province
          Vanuatu Vanuatu
          Niue Niue
          Tonga Tonga

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Alofi Niue Capital <1000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Ongea, Fiji. This height is estimated for 02 Jan 2016 22:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (3 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 27 of 12 Jan 2016 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          02 Jan 2016 22:00 Ongea Fiji  0.2
          02 Jan 2016 23:00 Monothaki Fiji  0.2
          01 Jan 2016 18:00 Neiafu Tonga  0.1