Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CARLOS-17
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
11 Feb 2017 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone CARLOS-17 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 148 km/h
    Maximum storm surge
    Vulnerability Medium (Reunion)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 83 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 148 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      83 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 520000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 04 Feb 2017 12:00 120 3.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Green 2 05 Feb 2017 00:00 130 2.1 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 3 05 Feb 2017 12:00 148 620 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 4 06 Feb 2017 00:00 120 2 million 650 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 5 06 Feb 2017 12:00 148 830 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 6 07 Feb 2017 00:00 130 840 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 7 07 Feb 2017 12:00 130 530 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 8 08 Feb 2017 00:00 130 520 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 9 08 Feb 2017 12:00 111 520 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 10 09 Feb 2017 00:00 120 520 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 11 09 Feb 2017 12:00 111 520 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 12 10 Feb 2017 00:00 111 520 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 13 10 Feb 2017 12:00 83 520 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 14 11 Feb 2017 00:00 74 520 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 15 11 Feb 2017 12:00 83 520 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 04 Feb 2017 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -16.7, 56.5
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Feb 2017 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17.4, 56.6
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Feb 2017 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -17.5, 57
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Feb 2017 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -17.8, 57.9
          GREEN
          		 5 06 Feb 2017 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -18.1, 57.2
          GREEN
          		 6 07 Feb 2017 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 840000 people -19, 56.3 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 7 07 Feb 2017 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 420000 people -20, 54.4 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 8 08 Feb 2017 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -21.1, 53.4
          GREEN
          		 9 08 Feb 2017 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -22.5, 52.5
          GREEN
          		 10 09 Feb 2017 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -23.6, 53.2
          GREEN
          		 11 09 Feb 2017 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -24.5, 54.4
          GREEN
          		 12 10 Feb 2017 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -26.4, 56.4
          GREEN
          		 13 10 Feb 2017 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -28.1, 60
          GREEN
          		 14 11 Feb 2017 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -29.1, 62.5
          GREEN
          		 15 11 Feb 2017 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -30.5, 65.2
          GREEN
          		 15 12 Feb 2017 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -31.2, 66.3
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Reunion

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Reunion Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Saint-Denis Reunion Capital 140000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Saint Denis Gillot RUN 20 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Saint Denis Reunion
          Pointe Des Galets REPDG Reunion
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0 m

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 11 Feb 2017 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)