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Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascarfrom 02 Jan 2018 18:00 UTC to 09 Jan 2018 06:00 UTC
Automatic impact report for tropical cyclone AVA-18
alertimage

Current Green alert for wind impact in Madagascar as of 09 Jan 2018 06:00:00 UTC

This tropical cyclone is expected to have a high humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.

Current storm status

This report is for advisory number 27 of tropical cyclone AVA-18 issued at 09 Jan 2018 06:00 UTC (GDACS Event ID 1000429, Latest episode ID: 27, inserted at 09 Jan 2018 08:34 UTC ).

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 1.314 million
  • Tropical Storm (maximum wind speed of 176 km/h)
  • Vulnerability of affected countries: High

Impact of Extreme Wind

1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  
Cloud map
Cloud map. Track and wind-buffer map. Green area: Area that can be affected by winds of more than 64 km/h (Tropical Storm strength). Orange area: Same, for winds of more than 92 km/h. Red area: Same, for winds above 120 km/h (Hurricane or Typhoon strength) (Source: JRC)
Cloud Map Zoomed on last forecast
Cloud Map Zoomed on last forecast. The zoomed map on the last track. (Source: JRC)

Affected population

Up to 2.5 million people people can be affected by wind speeds of cyclone strength or above. In addition, no people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.

Affected country

Country
Madagascar

Affected provinces

Region Province Country Population
Toamasina Madagascar 1.8 million people
Antananarivo Madagascar 4.3 million people

Affected Populated Places (first 20 records)

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Moramanga Toamasina Madagascar City 28000 people 1028 km
Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people 1132 km
Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City - 1215 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Nearby and affected airports
Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200 965 km
Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800 989 km
Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200 1136 km
Major ports
Name LOCODE Country Distance
Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar 995 km
Andevoranto Madagascar 1046 km
Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar 1132 km
Foulpointe Madagascar 1185 km
Fenerive Madagascar 1215 km
Hydro-dams
Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Tsiazompaniry Varahina-Sud 1956 992 km
Mantasoa Varahina-Nord 1938 1018 km

See complete report

Event time line

The storm evolution is shown in the table below. Alert levels and population estimates are related to the area from a point to the next.

Advisory Alert color Date (UTC) Category Wind speed Wind gusts Population affected
by cyclone winds (>120km/h)
Location (lat, lon)
1
GREEN
02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 km/h (40 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -15.4, 53.3
2
GREEN
03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 km/h (46 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -15.2, 52.6
3
GREEN
03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 km/h (46 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -15.4, 52.9
4
GREEN
03 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 km/h (46 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -16, 53.1
5
GREEN
03 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 km/h (46 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -16.6, 53.2
6
GREEN
04 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 km/h (52 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -17.3, 52.5
7
GREEN
04 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 km/h (52 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -17.8, 52.1
8
GREEN
04 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 km/h (63 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -17.4, 51.4
9
GREEN
04 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 km/h (69 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -17.3, 51
10
ORANGE
05 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 139 km/h (86 mph) km/h ( mph) 200000 people -17.2, 50.5
11
ORANGE
05 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 km/h (109 mph) km/h ( mph) 640000 people -17.9, 50
12
RED
05 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 km/h (103 mph) km/h ( mph) 1.3 million people -18.2, 49.4
13
RED
05 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 km/h (75 mph) km/h ( mph) 1.6 million people -18.6, 49
14
ORANGE
06 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 km/h (69 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -19.1, 48.3
15
ORANGE
06 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 km/h (63 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -20, 47.5
16
ORANGE
06 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 km/h (57 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -20.8, 47
17
ORANGE
06 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 km/h (46 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -21.2, 48.1
18
GREEN
07 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 km/h (40 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -22.4, 48.5
19
GREEN
07 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 km/h (40 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -22.7, 49
20
GREEN
07 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 km/h (40 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -23.4, 49.2
21
GREEN
07 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 km/h (46 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -24, 49.2
22
GREEN
08 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 km/h (46 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -24.7, 49
23
GREEN
08 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 km/h (46 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -25.4, 49.1
24
GREEN
08 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 km/h (46 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -26.8, 48.3
25
GREEN
08 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 km/h (46 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -27.3, 46.8
26
GREEN
09 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 km/h (40 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -27, 47.2
27
GREEN
09 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 km/h (40 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -28.2, 47.4
27
GREEN
09 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 km/h (34 mph) km/h ( mph) no people -30, 49.3

Previous advisories

For accessing reports of previous advisories, please click on the advisory number in the table below.

IDAlert ColorDate (UTC)CategoryMaximum sustained
wind speed (km/h)
Population affected
by cyclone winds (>120km/h)
Affected countries
1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 1.3 million Madagascar
2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 No people affected Madagascar
3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 No people affected Madagascar
4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 360 thousand Madagascar
5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 970 thousand Madagascar
6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 130 1.8 million Madagascar
7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 6 thousand Madagascar
8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 130 1.1 million Madagascar
9 04 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 130 470 thousand Madagascar
10 05 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 2 167 1.3 million Madagascar
11 05 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 1.3 million Madagascar
12 05 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 2.4 million Madagascar
13 05 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 1.9 million Madagascar
14 06 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 2.6 million Madagascar
15 06 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 2.6 million Madagascar
16 06 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 2.6 million Madagascar
17 06 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 2.6 million Madagascar
18 07 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 2.6 million Madagascar
19 07 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 2.6 million Madagascar
20 07 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 2.6 million Madagascar
21 07 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 2.6 million Madagascar
22 08 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 2.6 million Madagascar
23 08 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 2.6 million Madagascar
24 08 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 2.6 million Madagascar
25 08 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 2.6 million Madagascar
26 09 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 2.6 million Madagascar
27 09 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 2.6 million Madagascar

More information

Data resources

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.

About the data

JRC set up an automatic routine that includes the Tropical Cyclone (TC) bulletins produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) into a single database, covering all TC basins.

JRC calculates areas affected by high winds (wind buffers at 39, 58 and 74mph). This is done using the maximum reported wind radius (maximum of 4 quadrants) or, in case no wind radii are provided, through a regression analysis based on historical data. JRC also calculates the area affected by storm surge using HyFlux2 (hydrodynamic software).

Sources for data on critical infrastructure are: JRC NUMAS database (nuclear plants), ESRI (hydro dams, 1996), Global Discovery (airports, ports and cities).

Population data is from LandScan 2014.

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.