Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BERGUITTA-18
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
16 Jan 2018 18 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA-18 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
    Exposed population 340 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 194 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (18 Jan 01:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Reunion)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 139 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 194 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      139 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.1 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 12 Jan 2018 18:00 176 1.3 million No people Mauritius
        Green 2 13 Jan 2018 00:00 176 2.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 3 13 Jan 2018 06:00 176 2.2 million 1.2 million Mauritius
        Orange 4 13 Jan 2018 12:00 176 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 5 13 Jan 2018 18:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 6 14 Jan 2018 00:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 7 14 Jan 2018 06:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 8 14 Jan 2018 12:00 176 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 9 14 Jan 2018 18:00 176 3 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Red 10 15 Jan 2018 00:00 185 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Red 11 15 Jan 2018 06:00 194 2.2 million 1.8 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Red 12 15 Jan 2018 12:00 194 2.2 million 1.5 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Red 13 15 Jan 2018 18:00 185 2.2 million 1.4 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 14 16 Jan 2018 00:00 176 2.2 million 1.3 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 15 16 Jan 2018 06:00 157 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 16 16 Jan 2018 12:00 157 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 17 16 Jan 2018 18:00 139 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 12 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17, 66.9
          GREEN
          		 2 13 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17.3, 65.6
          GREEN
          		 3 13 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 44000 people -17.7, 64.9 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 4 13 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 44000 people -17.9, 64 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 5 13 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 44000 people -18.3, 63.6 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 6 14 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 44000 people -18.2, 63.4 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 7 14 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 44000 people -18.1, 63 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 8 14 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 44000 people -18.1, 62.9 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 9 14 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 44000 people -18, 63.1 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 10 15 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people 44000 people -17.8, 63.2 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 11 15 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 no people 44000 people -17.8, 63.2 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 12 15 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 44000 people -18, 63 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 13 15 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 3 185 no people 44000 people -18.1, 62.6 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 14 16 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 3 185 no people 1.3 million people -18.2, 61.9 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 15 16 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 no people 1.3 million people -18, 61.6 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 16 16 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 2 157 no people 1.3 million people -18.2, 61.1 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 17 16 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 no people 1.3 million people -18.2, 60.8 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 17 17 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 no people 2.2 million people -18.8, 59.8 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          ORANGE
          		 17 17 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 139 1.3 million people 2.1 million people -19.6, 58.4 Mauritius
          ORANGE
          		 17 18 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 800000 people 2.1 million people -20.8, 56.5 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 17 18 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 130 no people 2.1 million people -22.1, 54.6 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 17 19 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -25.2, 51.4
          GREEN
          		 17 20 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -29.7, 49.8
          GREEN
          		 17 21 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -34, 51.4
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mauritius
          Reunion

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Mauritius Mauritius
          Reunion Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Port Louis Mauritius Capital 150000 people
          Saint-Denis Reunion Capital 140000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Plaisance International MRU 57 Civ. Paved Yes 9900
          Saint Denis Gillot RUN 20 0
          St Pierre Pierrefonds ZSE 16 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Port Louis MUPLU Mauritius
          Mahebourg Mauritius
          Saint Denis Reunion
          Saint Pierre Reunion
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Black River, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 18 Jan 2018 01:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (42 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 16 Jan 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          18 Jan 2018 01:00 Black River Mauritius  0.4
          18 Jan 2018 00:00 Maheboug Mauritius  0.4
          18 Jan 2018 00:00 Port Louis Mauritius  0.4
          17 Jan 2018 23:00 Riviere du Rempart Mauritius  0.3
          17 Jan 2018 23:00 Saint-Antoine Mauritius  0.3
          17 Jan 2018 23:00 Trou aux Biches Mauritius  0.3
          18 Jan 2018 12:00 Etang Sale Reunion  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 01:00 Choisy Mauritius  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 12:00 Saint-Joseph Reunion  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 12:00 Petite Ile Reunion  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 01:00 Chemin Grenier Mauritius  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 10:00 Bras-Panon Reunion  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 12:00 Les Avirons Reunion  0.2
          17 Jan 2018 23:00 Grande Reviere Sud Est Mauritius  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 01:00 Souillac Mauritius  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 11:00 Saint-Philippe Reunion  0.2
          19 Jan 2018 14:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2018 15:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2018 15:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 00:00 Riche-en-Eau Mauritius  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 10:00 Cascades Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 12:00 Saint-Pierre Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 12:00 Saint-Paul Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 12:00 Le Port Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 13:00 La Possession Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 12:00 Saint-Leu Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 12:00 Trois Bassins Reunion  0.1
          20 Jan 2018 05:00 Ankilihago Madagascar  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 10:00 Sainte-Suzanne Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 10:00 Saint-Marie Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 10:00 Sainte-Rose Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 12:00 Saint-Louis Reunion  0.1
          19 Jan 2018 14:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2018 05:00 Ankazomanitsy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2018 05:00 Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2018 05:00 Esanta Madagascar  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 10:00 Saint-Andre Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 12:00 Saint-Benoit Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 10:00 Saint-Denis Reunion  0.1
          19 Jan 2018 15:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2018 05:00 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2018 05:00 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1