Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BERGUITTA-18
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
19 Jan 2018 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA-18 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
    Exposed population 340 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 194 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (18 Jan 05:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Reunion)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 93 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 194 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      93 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 12 Jan 2018 18:00 176 1.3 million No people Mauritius
        Green 2 13 Jan 2018 00:00 176 2.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 3 13 Jan 2018 06:00 176 2.2 million 1.2 million Mauritius
        Orange 4 13 Jan 2018 12:00 176 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 5 13 Jan 2018 18:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 6 14 Jan 2018 00:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 7 14 Jan 2018 06:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 8 14 Jan 2018 12:00 176 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 9 14 Jan 2018 18:00 176 3 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Red 10 15 Jan 2018 00:00 185 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Red 11 15 Jan 2018 06:00 194 2.2 million 1.8 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Red 12 15 Jan 2018 12:00 194 2.2 million 1.5 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Red 13 15 Jan 2018 18:00 185 2.2 million 1.4 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 14 16 Jan 2018 00:00 176 2.2 million 1.3 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 15 16 Jan 2018 06:00 157 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 16 16 Jan 2018 12:00 157 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 17 16 Jan 2018 18:00 139 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 18 17 Jan 2018 00:00 139 2.2 million 1.8 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 19 17 Jan 2018 06:00 130 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 20 17 Jan 2018 12:00 120 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 21 17 Jan 2018 18:00 120 2.2 million 1.3 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 22 18 Jan 2018 00:00 120 2.2 million 1.6 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Orange 23 18 Jan 2018 06:00 120 2.2 million 740 thousand Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 24 18 Jan 2018 12:00 120 2.2 million 760 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
        Green 25 18 Jan 2018 18:00 111 3.2 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
        Green 26 19 Jan 2018 00:00 102 3.3 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
        Green 27 19 Jan 2018 06:00 102 3 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
        Green 28 19 Jan 2018 12:00 93 2.3 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
        Green 29 19 Jan 2018 18:00 93 2.3 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 12 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17, 66.9
          GREEN
          		 2 13 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17.3, 65.6
          GREEN
          		 3 13 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 44000 people -17.7, 64.9 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 4 13 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 44000 people -17.9, 64 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 5 13 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 44000 people -18.3, 63.6 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 6 14 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 44000 people -18.2, 63.4 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 7 14 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 44000 people -18.1, 63 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 8 14 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 44000 people -18.1, 62.9 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 9 14 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 44000 people -18, 63.1 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 10 15 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people 44000 people -17.8, 63.2 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 11 15 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 no people 44000 people -17.8, 63.2 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 12 15 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 44000 people -18, 63 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 13 15 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 3 185 no people 44000 people -18.1, 62.6 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 14 16 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 3 185 no people 1.3 million people -18.2, 61.9 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 15 16 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 no people 1.3 million people -18, 61.6 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 16 16 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 2 157 no people 1.3 million people -18.2, 61.1 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 17 16 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 no people 1.3 million people -18.2, 60.8 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 18 17 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 no people 1.3 million people -18.3, 60.6 Mauritius
          GREEN
          		 19 17 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people 2.2 million people -18.1, 60.2 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 20 17 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 no people 2.1 million people -18.3, 59.8 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          ORANGE
          		 21 17 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 340000 people 2.1 million people -18.9, 59.5 Mauritius
          ORANGE
          		 22 18 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 1.3 million people 2.1 million people -19.7, 58.5 Mauritius
          ORANGE
          		 23 18 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 120 210000 people 2.1 million people -20.7, 57.6 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 24 18 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 31000 people 2.1 million people -21.5, 56.6 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 25 18 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 2.1 million people -22.4, 54.8 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 26 19 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2.9 million people -22.8, 54.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 27 19 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 1.6 million people -23.8, 53.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 28 19 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 120000 people -25, 52.7 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 29 19 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 95000 people -26.6, 51.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 29 20 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -29.3, 50.1
          GREEN
          		 29 20 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -31.7, 50
          GREEN
          		 29 21 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -33.2, 51.2
          GREEN
          		 29 21 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -34, 53.6
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar
          Reunion
          Mauritius

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toliara Madagascar
          Reunion Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          Mauritius Mauritius

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Tolanaro Madagascar City -
          Saint-Denis Reunion Capital 140000 people
          Port Louis Mauritius Capital 150000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Tolagnaro FTU 8 Civ. Paved No 5900
          St Pierre Pierrefonds ZSE 16 0
          Saint Denis Gillot RUN 20 0
          Plaisance International MRU 57 Civ. Paved Yes 9900
          Rodrigues Plaine Corail RRG 40 Civ. Paved Yes 3300

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Ste Luce Madagascar
          Tolanaro MGFTU Madagascar
          Manantenina Madagascar
          Saint Pierre Reunion
          Pointe Des Galets REPDG Reunion
          Saint Denis Reunion
          Mahebourg Mauritius
          Port Louis MUPLU Mauritius
          Port Mathurin Mauritius
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Maheboug, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 18 Jan 2018 05:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (27 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 29 of 19 Jan 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          18 Jan 2018 05:00 Maheboug Mauritius  0.5
          18 Jan 2018 05:00 Riche-en-Eau Mauritius  0.4
          18 Jan 2018 06:00 Souillac Mauritius  0.3
          18 Jan 2018 06:00 Chemin Grenier Mauritius  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 06:00 Choisy Mauritius  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 14:00 Saint-Philippe Reunion  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 15:00 Les Avirons Reunion  0.2
          19 Jan 2018 15:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.2
          18 Jan 2018 13:00 Saint-Benoit Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 04:00 Saint-Antoine Mauritius  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 14:00 Petite Ile Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 14:00 Saint-Joseph Reunion  0.1
          19 Jan 2018 15:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2018 15:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2018 15:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 04:00 Riviere du Rempart Mauritius  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 15:00 Saint-Pierre Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 15:00 Saint-Leu Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 03:00 Grande Reviere Sud Est Mauritius  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 05:00 Black River Mauritius  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 14:00 Cascades Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 15:00 Saint-Louis Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 04:00 Port Louis Mauritius  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 04:00 Trou aux Biches Mauritius  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 14:00 Sainte-Rose Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 15:00 Etang Sale Reunion  0.1
          18 Jan 2018 15:00 Trois Bassins Reunion  0.1