Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for GITA-18 in Tonga from 09 Feb 2018 00:00 UTC to 12 Feb 2018 06:00 UTC

12 Feb 2018 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GITA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Tonga
Exposed population	80 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (12 Feb 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tonga)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	231 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	231 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

231 km/h Current Max.

Up to 84000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	09 Feb 2018 00:00	120	390 thousand	80 thousand	Tonga
2	09 Feb 2018 06:00	148	400 thousand	80 thousand	Tonga
3	09 Feb 2018 12:00	148	930 thousand	80 thousand	Tonga
4	09 Feb 2018 18:00	139	830 thousand	80 thousand	Tonga
5	10 Feb 2018 00:00	139	820 thousand	80 thousand	Tonga
6	10 Feb 2018 06:00	139	600 thousand	80 thousand	Tonga
7	10 Feb 2018 12:00	130	670 thousand	80 thousand	Tonga
8	10 Feb 2018 18:00	176	770 thousand	80 thousand	Tonga
9	11 Feb 2018 00:00	204	390 thousand	Few people	Niue, Tonga, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji
10	11 Feb 2018 06:00	185	1.1 million	80 thousand	Tonga
11	11 Feb 2018 12:00	185	980 thousand	80 thousand	Tonga
12	11 Feb 2018 18:00	185	1.1 million	80 thousand	Tonga
13	12 Feb 2018 00:00	213	790 thousand	80 thousand	Tonga
14	12 Feb 2018 06:00	231	540 thousand	80 thousand	Tonga

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	09 Feb 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	270000 people	-13.8, -175.5	American Samoa
2	09 Feb 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	270000 people	-14.3, -174.5	Niue
3	09 Feb 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	250000 people	-14.5, -173	Niue
4	09 Feb 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	250000 people	-15.3, -171.4	Niue
5	10 Feb 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	210000 people	-16.1, -170	Niue
6	10 Feb 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1200 people	-17, -169	Niue
7	10 Feb 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1200 people	-18.2, -168.5	Niue
8	10 Feb 2018 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	1200 people	-18.9, -168.6	Niue
9	11 Feb 2018 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	1200 people	-20.5, -168.3	Niue
10	11 Feb 2018 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	6200 people	-20.9, -168.9	Niue
11	11 Feb 2018 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	110000 people	-21.4, -170.2	Niue
12	11 Feb 2018 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	110000 people	-21.7, -171.5	Tonga
13	12 Feb 2018 00:00	Category 3	204	83000 people	110000 people	-21.8, -172.6	Tonga
14	12 Feb 2018 06:00	Category 4	231	83000 people	91000 people	-21.8, -174.3	Tonga
14	12 Feb 2018 18:00	Category 4	231	<1000 people	90000 people	-21.4, -176.9	Tonga
14	13 Feb 2018 06:00	Category 4	222	<1000 people	21000 people	-21.2, -179.3	Fiji
14	13 Feb 2018 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	19000 people	-21.3, 178.6	Fiji
14	14 Feb 2018 06:00	Category 3	204	no people	11000 people	-21.6, 176.8	Fiji
14	15 Feb 2018 06:00	Category 3	185	<1000 people	160000 people	-22.3, 173.3	New Caledonia
14	16 Feb 2018 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	170000 people	-24.1, 169.5	New Caledonia
14	17 Feb 2018 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-27, 166.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Tonga

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Tonga	Tonga

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Nuku'alofa		Tonga	Capital	24000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Eua Kaufana	EUA	unknown				0
Fua'amotu International	TBU	38	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8700
Ono-I-Lau	ONU	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Eua Island		Tonga
Nuku'alofa	TOTBU	Tonga
Ata Island		Tonga
Hunter Island		New Caledonia
Matthew Island		New Caledonia

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Ohonua, Tonga. This height is estimated for 12 Feb 2018 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (24 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 12 Feb 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	12 Feb 2018 10:00	Ohonua	Tonga	0.8
	12 Feb 2018 11:00	Fuaamotu	Tonga	0.6
	12 Feb 2018 11:00	Fatumu	Tonga	0.6
	12 Feb 2018 12:00	Nukunuku	Tonga	0.4
	12 Feb 2018 12:00	Houma	Tonga	0.4
	12 Feb 2018 12:00	Pea	Tonga	0.4
	12 Feb 2018 12:00	Nuku'alofa	Tonga	0.4
	12 Feb 2018 12:00	Foui	Tonga	0.4
	12 Feb 2018 11:00	Mua	Tonga	0.3
	12 Feb 2018 11:00	Kolonga	Tonga	0.3
	12 Feb 2018 11:00	Niutoua	Tonga	0.3
	16 Feb 2018 06:00	Gadji	New Caledonia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 06:00	Kuto	New Caledonia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 06:00	Vao	New Caledonia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 06:00	Wapan	New Caledonia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 06:00	Ouara	New Caledonia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 05:00	Plum	New Caledonia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 06:00	Prony	New Caledonia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 05:00	Yate-Village	New Caledonia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 05:00	Waho	New Caledonia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 05:00	Goro	New Caledonia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 04:00	Saint-Louis	New Caledonia	0.1
	09 Feb 2018 01:00	Mua	Wallis and Futuna	0.1
	09 Feb 2018 01:00	Mata-Utu	Wallis and Futuna	0.1