Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for SAGAR-18 in Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen from 16 May 2018 18:00 UTC to 19 May 2018 06:00 UTC

19 May 2018 06 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SAGAR-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	102 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (19 May 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	102 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

TOP

Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.9 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 May 2018 18:00	83	3.5 million	No people	Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
2	17 May 2018 00:00	83	3 million	No people	Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
3	17 May 2018 06:00	93	6 million	No people	Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
4	17 May 2018 12:00	102	2.5 million	No people	Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
5	17 May 2018 18:00	93	570 thousand	No people	Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia
6	18 May 2018 00:00	93	1.6 million	No people	Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
7	18 May 2018 06:00	93	3.3 million	No people	Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
8	18 May 2018 12:00	93	3.7 million	No people	Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
9	18 May 2018 18:00	102	2 million	No people	Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
10	19 May 2018 00:00	102	2.1 million	No people	Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
11	19 May 2018 06:00	93	2.9 million	No people	Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 May 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	11000 people	13.2, 49.5	Yemen
2	17 May 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	29000 people	13.1, 48.9	Yemen
3	17 May 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	34000 people	13.2, 48.8	Yemen
4	17 May 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	25000 people	12.9, 48.1	Yemen
5	17 May 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	34000 people	12.5, 47.2	Somalia
6	18 May 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	45000 people	12, 46.4	Somalia
7	18 May 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	940000 people	11.6, 45.9	Yemen
8	18 May 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	290000 people	11.5, 45.5	Somalia
9	18 May 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	230000 people	11.3, 45.1	Somalia
10	19 May 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	700000 people	11, 44.6	Somalia
11	19 May 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	820000 people	10.8, 44.2	Somalia
11	19 May 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.8 million people	10.3, 43.4	Somalia
11	20 May 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	9.7, 42.5	Somalia

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Somalia
Ethiopia
Yemen

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Awdal	Somalia
Woqooyi Galbeed	Somalia
Togdheer	Somalia
Harerge	Ethiopia
Sanaag	Somalia
Aden	Yemen
Abyan	Yemen
'Ataq	Yemen
Hadhramaut	Yemen

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Berbera	Woqooyi Galbeed	Somalia	City	240000 people
Saylac	Woqooyi Galbeed	Somalia	City	-
Ji Jiga	Harerge	Ethiopia	City	-
'Adan		Yemen	Major city	540000 people
Kraytar		Yemen	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Berbera	BBO	9	Civ.	Paved	No	13500
Borama	BXX	unknown				0
Aden International	ADE	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10100

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Bulhar		Somalia
Berbera	SOBBO	Somalia
Zeila		Somalia
Karin		Somalia
Aden	YEADE	Yemen
Al Hawra		Yemen

TOP

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Lughaye, Somalia. This height is estimated for 19 May 2018 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 19 May 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 May 2018 07:00	Lughaye	Somalia	0.3
	19 May 2018 08:00	Harag Jid	Somalia	0.2
	19 May 2018 09:00	Carmaale	Somalia	0.2
	19 May 2018 07:00	Sabawanaag	Somalia	0.2
	19 May 2018 07:00	Hadeytacawl	Somalia	0.2
	19 May 2018 07:00	Takhushih	Somalia	0.2
	19 May 2018 07:00	Sheikh Ali Idris	Somalia	0.1
	19 May 2018 07:00	Saylac	Somalia	0.1
	19 May 2018 07:00	Biyafoge	Somalia	0.1
	17 May 2018 21:00	Alela	Eritrea	0.1
	19 May 2018 03:00	Geeri	Somalia	0.1
	19 May 2018 05:00	Bullaxaar	Somalia	0.1
	17 May 2018 21:00	Aseb	Eritrea	0.1
	17 May 2018 22:00	Fagal	Djibouti	0.1