Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAGAR-18
in Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SAGAR-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (19 May 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 93 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

93 km/h Current

Up to 2.9 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 16 May 2018 18:00 83 3.5 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 2 17 May 2018 00:00 83 3 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 3 17 May 2018 06:00 93 6 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 4 17 May 2018 12:00 102 2.5 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 5 17 May 2018 18:00 93 570 thousand No people Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia
Green 6 18 May 2018 00:00 93 1.6 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
Green 7 18 May 2018 06:00 93 3.3 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
Green 8 18 May 2018 12:00 93 3.7 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
Green 9 18 May 2018 18:00 102 2 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
Green 10 19 May 2018 00:00 102 2.1 million No people Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
Green 11 19 May 2018 06:00 93 2.9 million No people Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon)
GREEN
1 16 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 11000 people no people 13.2, 49.5
GREEN
2 17 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 28000 people no people 13.1, 48.9
GREEN
3 17 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 34000 people no people 13.2, 48.8
GREEN
4 17 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 24000 people no people 12.9, 48.1
GREEN
5 17 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 34000 people no people 12.5, 47.2
GREEN
6 18 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 44000 people no people 12, 46.4
GREEN
7 18 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 940000 people no people 11.6, 45.9
GREEN
8 18 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 280000 people no people 11.5, 45.5
GREEN
9 18 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 230000 people no people 11.3, 45.1
GREEN
10 19 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 700000 people no people 11, 44.6
GREEN
11 19 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 810000 people no people 10.8, 44.2
GREEN
11 19 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 1.7 million people no people 10.3, 43.4
GREEN
11 20 May 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 9.7, 42.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Somalia
Ethiopia
Yemen

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Awdal Somalia -
Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia 1.2 million people
Togdheer Somalia 750000 people
Harerge Ethiopia 5.5 million people
Sanaag Somalia 420000 people
Aden Yemen 3.2 million people
Abyan Yemen -
'Ataq Yemen -
Hadhramaut Yemen -

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Berbera Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia City 240000 people 97 km
Saylac Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia City - 100 km
Ji Jiga Harerge Ethiopia City - 223 km
'Adan Yemen Major city 540000 people 237 km
Kraytar Yemen City - 240 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Berbera BBO 9 Civ. Paved No 13500 93 km
Borama BXX unknown 0 149 km
Aden International ADE 4 Civ. Paved Yes 10100 242 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Bulhar Somalia 51 km
Berbera SOBBO Somalia 96 km
Zeila Somalia 96 km
Karin Somalia 179 km
Aden YEADE Yemen 238 km
Al Hawra Yemen 496 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Lughaye, Somalia. This height is estimated for 19 May 2018 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 19 May 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 May 2018 07:00 Lughaye Somalia  0.3
19 May 2018 08:00 Harag Jid Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 09:00 Carmaale Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Sabawanaag Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Hadeytacawl Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Takhushih Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Sheikh Ali Idris Somalia  0.1
19 May 2018 07:00 Saylac Somalia  0.1
19 May 2018 07:00 Biyafoge Somalia  0.1
17 May 2018 21:00 Alela Eritrea  0.1
19 May 2018 03:00 Geeri Somalia  0.1
19 May 2018 05:00 Bullaxaar Somalia  0.1
17 May 2018 21:00 Aseb Eritrea  0.1
17 May 2018 22:00 Fagal Djibouti  0.1