Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAGAR-18
in Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SAGAR-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (19 May 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 102 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Wind

102 km/h Current

Up to 2.4 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 16 May 2018 18:00 83 3.5 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 2 17 May 2018 00:00 83 3 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 3 17 May 2018 06:00 93 6 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 4 17 May 2018 12:00 102 2.5 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon)
GREEN
1 16 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 11000 people no people 13.2, 49.5
GREEN
2 17 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 28000 people no people 13.1, 48.9
GREEN
3 17 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 34000 people no people 13.2, 48.8
GREEN
4 17 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 24000 people no people 12.9, 48.1
GREEN
4 18 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.5, 47.1
GREEN
4 18 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 30000 people no people 12.1, 46.3
GREEN
4 19 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 320000 people no people 11.7, 45.5
GREEN
4 19 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 2.4 million people no people 11.2, 44.6
GREEN
4 20 May 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 10.2, 42.7
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Yemen
Somalia
Djibouti
Ethiopia

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
'Ataq Yemen -
Abyan Yemen -
Hadhramaut Yemen -
Sanaag Somalia 420000 people
Aden Yemen 3.2 million people
Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia 1.2 million people
Togdheer Somalia 750000 people
Awdal Somalia -
Harerge Ethiopia 5.5 million people
Djibouti Djibouti 290000 people
'Ali Sabih Djibouti 38000 people
Dikhil Djibouti 48000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
'Adan Yemen Major city 540000 people 333 km
Berbera Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia City 240000 people 433 km
Saylac Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia City - 532 km
Djibouti Djibouti Capital 390000 people 558 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Berbera BBO 9 Civ. Paved No 13500 442 km
Djibouti Ambouli JIB 15 Civ. Paved Yes 10300 558 km
Chabelley 27 0 569 km
Musha MHI unknown 0 580 km
Ali Sabieh AII unknown 0 617 km
Borama BXX unknown 0 631 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Al Hawra Yemen 115 km
Karin Somalia 335 km
Berbera SOBBO Somalia 434 km
Bulhar Somalia 489 km
Zeila Somalia 532 km
Djibouti DJJIB Djibouti 559 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Lughaye, Somalia. This height is estimated for 19 May 2018 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 19 May 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 May 2018 07:00 Lughaye Somalia  0.3
19 May 2018 08:00 Harag Jid Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 09:00 Carmaale Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Sabawanaag Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Hadeytacawl Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Takhushih Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Sheikh Ali Idris Somalia  0.1
19 May 2018 07:00 Saylac Somalia  0.1
19 May 2018 07:00 Biyafoge Somalia  0.1
17 May 2018 21:00 Alela Eritrea  0.1
19 May 2018 03:00 Geeri Somalia  0.1
19 May 2018 05:00 Bullaxaar Somalia  0.1
17 May 2018 21:00 Aseb Eritrea  0.1
17 May 2018 22:00 Fagal Djibouti  0.1