Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAGAR-18
in Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
18 May 2018 00 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone SAGAR-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (19 May 10:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Somalia)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 93 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 102 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      93 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 1.6 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 16 May 2018 18:00 83 3.5 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
        Green 2 17 May 2018 00:00 83 3 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
        Green 3 17 May 2018 06:00 93 6 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
        Green 4 17 May 2018 12:00 102 2.5 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
        Green 5 17 May 2018 18:00 93 570 thousand No people Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia
        Green 6 18 May 2018 00:00 93 1.6 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 16 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 11000 people 13.2, 49.5 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 2 17 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 29000 people 13.1, 48.9 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 3 17 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 34000 people 13.2, 48.8 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 4 17 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 25000 people 12.9, 48.1 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 5 17 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 34000 people 12.5, 47.2 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 6 18 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 45000 people 12, 46.4 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 6 18 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 210000 people 11.4, 45.7 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 6 19 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 950000 people 10.9, 45 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 6 19 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 1.4 million people 10.4, 44.2 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 6 20 May 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 10.1, 43.6 Somalia
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Somalia
          Yemen
          Ethiopia

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Sanaag Somalia
          Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia
          Abyan Yemen
          'Ataq Yemen
          Togdheer Somalia
          Awdal Somalia
          Hadhramaut Yemen
          Harerge Ethiopia

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Berbera Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia City 240000 people
          Hargeysa Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia City 470000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Berbera BBO 9 Civ. Paved No 13500
          Hargeisa HGA 1348 0
          Borama BXX unknown 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Karin Somalia
          Berbera SOBBO Somalia
          Al Hawra Yemen
          Bulhar Somalia
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Sheikh Ali Idris, Somalia. This height is estimated for 19 May 2018 10:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (22 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 18 May 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          19 May 2018 10:00 Sheikh Ali Idris Somalia  0.2
          19 May 2018 11:00 Lughaye Somalia  0.2
          19 May 2018 11:00 Biyafoge Somalia  0.2
          19 May 2018 09:00 Takhushih Somalia  0.2
          19 May 2018 11:00 Hadeytacawl Somalia  0.1
          19 May 2018 11:00 Sabawanaag Somalia  0.1
          19 May 2018 11:00 Carmaale Somalia  0.1
          19 May 2018 12:00 Saylac Somalia  0.1
          17 May 2018 20:00 Aylu Eritrea  0.1
          17 May 2018 20:00 Rehayto Eritrea  0.1
          18 May 2018 23:00 Berbera Somalia  0.1
          19 May 2018 09:00 Bullaxaar Somalia  0.1
          19 May 2018 08:00 Geeri Somalia  0.1
          19 May 2018 06:00 Ari Adeso Somalia  0.1
          19 May 2018 12:00 Harag Jid Somalia  0.1
          18 May 2018 16:00 Anteral Somalia  0.1
          17 May 2018 20:00 Alela Eritrea  0.1
          17 May 2018 21:00 Aseb Eritrea  0.1
          18 May 2018 22:00 Seyara Somalia  0.1
          19 May 2018 02:00 Batalaale Somalia  0.1
          19 May 2018 12:00 Loyado Djibouti  0.1
          17 May 2018 22:00 Fagal Djibouti  0.1