Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIA-18
in China, Japan

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Glide number: TC-2018-000110-CHN
Exposed countries China, Japan
Exposed population 25.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (04 Jul 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 213 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 250 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

213 km/h Current

Up to 1.2 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 02 Jul 2018 18:00 176 160 thousand No people Guam
Green 2 03 Jul 2018 00:00 194 160 thousand No people Guam
Green 3 03 Jul 2018 06:00 185 210 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 4 03 Jul 2018 12:00 176 210 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 5 03 Jul 2018 18:00 176 200 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 6 04 Jul 2018 00:00 176 210 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 7 04 Jul 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 8 04 Jul 2018 12:00 185 170 thousand No people Guam
Green 9 04 Jul 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 2 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 10 05 Jul 2018 00:00 250 1.6 million 2 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 11 05 Jul 2018 06:00 213 1.7 million 1.3 million Japan

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon)
GREEN
1 02 Jul 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 9.9, 146
GREEN
2 03 Jul 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 10.4, 145.8
GREEN
3 03 Jul 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 11.1, 148.5
GREEN
4 03 Jul 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 11.8, 147.3
GREEN
5 03 Jul 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 11.4, 146.5
GREEN
6 04 Jul 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 11.7, 146.3
GREEN
7 04 Jul 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 56 210000 people no people 12.4, 146.1
GREEN
8 04 Jul 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 160000 people no people 12.6, 145.2
GREEN
9 04 Jul 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 210000 people <1000 people 13.6, 144.9
GREEN
10 05 Jul 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 210000 people no people 14.1, 144.1
GREEN
11 05 Jul 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 160000 people no people 14.6, 143.4
GREEN
11 05 Jul 2018 18:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 15.6, 142.5
GREEN
11 06 Jul 2018 06:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 16.7, 141.9
GREEN
11 06 Jul 2018 18:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 17.6, 141.4
GREEN
11 07 Jul 2018 06:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 18.7, 140.9
GREEN
11 08 Jul 2018 06:00 Category 4 241 <1000 people no people 20.8, 138.2
ORANGE
11 09 Jul 2018 06:00 Category 4 213 1.4 million people 1.2 million people 23.3, 134
GREEN
11 10 Jul 2018 06:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 26.2, 128.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Japan

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Okinawa Japan 1.2 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Naha Okinawa Japan City 290000 people 2079 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Minami Daito MMD 4 Civ. Paved Yes 4900 1776 km
Futenma Mcas 75 Mil. Paved Yes 9000 2079 km
Yoron RNJ 16 Civ. Paved Yes 3900 2079 km
Naha OKA 5 Civ. Paved Yes 9800 2083 km
Kadena AB DNA 45 Mil. Paved Yes 12100 2083 km
Ie Jima IEJ 75 Civ. Paved No 4900 2105 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Okino Japan 1682 km
Nakagusuku Wan Japan 2062 km
Kin Wan JPKIN Japan 2067 km
Heianza JPHEI Japan 2069 km
Nishihara JPNHR Japan 2074 km
Oku Japan 2079 km
Naha JPNAH Japan 2081 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Kannako Kanna Kannafukujigawa 1993 2076 km
Okukubi Okukubigawa 2001 2077 km
Zukeyama Kurashiki Yonabarugawa 1995 2082 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Camp Quezon, Guam. This height is estimated for 04 Jul 2018 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (36 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 05 Jul 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Adacao Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Asan Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Hagatna Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Sinajana Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Mongmong Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Yona Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Tamuning Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Barrigada Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Upi Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Agat Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 18:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 17:00 Inarajan Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 17:00 Talofofo Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 17:00 Ylig Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 19:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 19:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 19:00 Piti Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 17:00 Umatac Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 17:00 Merizo Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 19:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
04 Jul 2018 19:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
04 Jul 2018 19:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
04 Jul 2018 19:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.1