Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BERYL-18 in Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique from 05 Jul 2018 15:00 UTC to 07 Jul 2018 21:00 UTC

07 Jul 2018 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BERYL-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (09 Jul 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Guadeloupe)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	83 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	157 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

83 km/h Current Max.

Up to 470000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	05 Jul 2018 15:00	65	No people	No people
2	05 Jul 2018 21:00	120	No people	No people
3	06 Jul 2018 03:00	120	No people	No people
4	06 Jul 2018 09:00	139	590 thousand	No people	Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe
5	06 Jul 2018 15:00	157	10.7 million	70 thousand	Dominica
6	06 Jul 2018 21:00	148	5.8 million	390 thousand	Martinique
7	07 Jul 2018 03:00	139	4.9 million	370 thousand	Martinique
8	07 Jul 2018 09:00	120	560 thousand	No people	Saint Lucia, Martinique, Dominica
9	07 Jul 2018 15:00	102	6.2 million	No people	Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Dominican Republic, Haiti
10	07 Jul 2018 21:00	83	470 thousand	No people	Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	05 Jul 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	10.2, -41.4
2	05 Jul 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	10.3, -42.8
3	06 Jul 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	10.4, -44
4	06 Jul 2018 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	10.6, -45.1
5	06 Jul 2018 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	10.7, -46.5
6	06 Jul 2018 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	10.6, -47.8
7	07 Jul 2018 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	10.9, -48.9
8	07 Jul 2018 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	11.1, -49.8
9	07 Jul 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	12.1, -51.1
10	07 Jul 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.7, -52.7
10	08 Jul 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	13.4, -55
10	08 Jul 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	470000 people	14.6, -58.5	Dominica
10	09 Jul 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	41000 people	15.9, -62.4	Guadeloupe
10	09 Jul 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.3, -66.3	Puerto Rico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Martinique
Dominica
Guadeloupe

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Martinique	Martinique
Dominica	Dominica
Guadeloupe	Guadeloupe

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Roseau	Saint George	Dominica	Capital	17000 people
Capesterre		Guadeloupe	City	-
Pointe-à-Pitre		Guadeloupe	City	-
Saint-Claude		Guadeloupe	City	10000 people
Basse-Terre		Guadeloupe	Capital	11000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Melville Hall	DOM	24	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4800
Dominica Cane	DCF	unknown				0
Canefield		4	Civ.	Paved	No	2500
Marie Galante	GBJ	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4000
Terre de Haut	LSS	unknown				0
Terre-de-Bas	HTB	unknown				0
Le Raizet	PTP	11	Civ.	Paved	Yes	11400
Basse-Terre Baillif	BBR	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
La Trinite		Martinique
Roseau	DMRSU	Dominica
Grand Bourg		Guadeloupe
Saint Louis		Guadeloupe
Portsmouth	DMPOR	Dominica
Bourg Des Saintes		Guadeloupe
Pointe-a-Pitre	GPPTP	Guadeloupe
Basse Terre	GPBBR	Guadeloupe

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Castle Bruce, Dominica. This height is estimated for 09 Jul 2018 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (9 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 07 Jul 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Jul 2018 02:00	Castle Bruce	Dominica	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 02:00	La Plaine	Dominica	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 03:00	Marigot	Dominica	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 03:00	Grand-Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 03:00	Capesterre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 05:00	Basse-Terre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 04:00	Le Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 03:00	Portsmouth	Dominica	0.1
	09 Jul 2018 04:00	Baroui	Dominica	0.1