Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Glide number: TC-2018-000152-CHN
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population 61.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (10 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 185 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

185 km/h Current

Up to 96000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon)
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 15, 155.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 14.9, 152.1
GREEN
7 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 2 167 210000 people no people 14.6, 148.8
RED
7 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 210000 people 96000 people 14.3, 146.2
GREEN
7 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, 141.1
GREEN
7 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 15.6, 136.2
GREEN
7 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 17.6, 131.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Guam

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Guam Guam 140000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700 1439 km
Dynasty 46 0 1448 km
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 1450 km
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 1495 km
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0 1536 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands 1451 km
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 1506 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (37 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 08 Sep 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 17:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 17:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 15:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Oceanview Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Dededo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 South Acres Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Ipapao Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Upi Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Gayinero Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Asatdas Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Lupog Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Piti Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Asan Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Hagatna Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Sinajana Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Mongmong Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Yona Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Tamuning Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Barrigada Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Asbeco Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Adacao Guam  0.1