Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LUBAN-18 in Yemen from 08 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC to 13 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC

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GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUBAN-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Yemen
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (14 Oct 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Yemen)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to 720000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	08 Oct 2018 00:00	120	350 thousand	No people	Oman, Yemen
2	08 Oct 2018 06:00	130	90 thousand	20 thousand	Yemen
3	08 Oct 2018 12:00	139	150 thousand	No people	Yemen
4	08 Oct 2018 18:00	120	120 thousand	No people	Yemen
5	09 Oct 2018 00:00	130	620 thousand	No people	Yemen, Somalia
6	09 Oct 2018 06:00	130	1.3 million	No people	Yemen
7	09 Oct 2018 12:00	120	1.5 million	No people	Yemen
8	09 Oct 2018 18:00	139	720 thousand	210 thousand	Yemen
9	10 Oct 2018 00:00	139	1.5 million	310 thousand	Yemen
10	10 Oct 2018 06:00	139	1.5 million	40 thousand	Yemen
11	10 Oct 2018 12:00	139	950 thousand	40 thousand	Yemen
12	10 Oct 2018 18:00	139	1.1 million	70 thousand	Yemen
13	11 Oct 2018 00:00	139	1.3 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
14	11 Oct 2018 06:00	130	920 thousand	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
15	11 Oct 2018 12:00	120	1.2 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
16	11 Oct 2018 18:00	120	1.5 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
17	12 Oct 2018 00:00	111	1.3 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
18	12 Oct 2018 06:00	111	1.5 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
19	12 Oct 2018 12:00	111	1.3 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
20	12 Oct 2018 18:00	102	1.3 million	No people	Yemen
21	13 Oct 2018 00:00	111	1.4 million	No people	Yemen, Saudi Arabia
22	13 Oct 2018 06:00	102	1.3 million	No people	Yemen
23	13 Oct 2018 12:00	93	720 thousand	No people	Oman, Yemen

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	08 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.4, 62.3
2	08 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.3, 61.6
3	08 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.2, 61.6
4	08 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.5, 61.2
5	09 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.9, 60.6
6	09 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.2, 60.1
7	09 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.4, 59.7
8	09 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.1, 59.9
9	10 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.1, 59.1
10	10 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.2, 58.9
11	10 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.4, 58.5
12	10 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.5, 58.5
13	11 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.5, 58.1
14	11 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	14.5, 58.1
15	11 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.5, 57.9
16	11 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.5, 57.8
17	12 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.6, 57.6
18	12 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.6, 57.4
19	12 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.6, 57.1
20	12 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.6, 56.4
21	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.6, 55.7
22	13 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	19000 people	14.8, 55.1	Yemen
23	13 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	97000 people	14.9, 54.4	Yemen
23	14 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	310000 people	15.1, 52.7	Yemen
23	14 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	680000 people	15.3, 50.9	Yemen
23	15 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.7, 49.7	Yemen

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Oman
Yemen

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Zufar	Oman
Al Mahrah	Yemen
Hadhramaut	Yemen

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ghayl Ba Wazir		Yemen	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Al Gaidah	AAY	30	Civ.	Paved	No	8800
Qishn	IHN	30	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Riyan	RIY	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Canoxy		1003				0
Sayun	GXF	640	Civ.	Unpaved	No	9800

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Damqawt		Yemen
Ras Fartak		Yemen
Nishtun	YENIS	Yemen
Sayhut		Yemen
Ash Shihr		Yemen

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Qishn, Yemen. This height is estimated for 14 Oct 2018 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (61 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 23 of 13 Oct 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	14 Oct 2018 07:00	Qishn	Yemen	0.3
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	Itab	Yemen	0.3
	13 Oct 2018 01:00	Duqm	Oman	0.3
	13 Oct 2018 08:00	Qaysad	Oman	0.3
	13 Oct 2018 08:00	Lakabi	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 08:00	Sawqirah	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 09:00	As Sirab	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 07:00	Nafun	Oman	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 10:00	Al Qumrah	Yemen	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Shuwayr	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 02:00	Lakba	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 15:00	Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 15:00	As Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 06:00	Saqr	Yemen	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 15:00	Qasasil	Qatar	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 15:00	Umm Bab	Qatar	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 15:00	Al Uqayr	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 08:00	Quwayrah	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 09:00	Al Khaluf	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 01:00	Umm Said	Qatar	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 15:00	Ra's Munaysif	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 03:00	Nishtun	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 11:00	Sharkhat	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 05:00	Haswayn	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 15:00	Rehayto	Eritrea	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 15:00	Aylu	Eritrea	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 07:00	Dasah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 18:00	Dukhan	Qatar	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 17:00	Al Aziziyah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 17:00	Az Zallaq	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 17:00	Ar Rumaythah	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 18:00	Ad Dur	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 18:00	Jaww	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 03:00	Tabut	Yemen	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 13:00	Hayrut	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 12:00	Tamnum	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 14:00	Alela	Eritrea	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 14:00	Aseb	Eritrea	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 07:00	Zahr	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 06:00	Ar Ruways	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 04:00	Ad Dawhah	Qatar	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 04:00	Al Wakrah	Qatar	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 12:00	Al Khubar	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 17:00	Al Qurayyah	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 19:00	Hamad Town	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 19:00	Salmbad	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 19:00	'Isa Town	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 19:00	Ar Rifa	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 19:00	Ar Rifa' ash Sharqi	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 19:00	Karranah	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 19:00	Al Seef	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 19:00	Jidd Hafs	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 19:00	Al Manamah	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 07:00	Fararah	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 07:00	Miji	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Dhuwwah	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Jazirah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Bu Lifiyat	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 13:00	Musaina'a	Yemen	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 10:00	Filim	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 06:00	Ar Rakah	Saudi Arabia	0.1