Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CILIDA-18 Off-shore from 19 Dec 2018 00:00 UTC to 24 Dec 2018 18:00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CILIDA-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	102 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	259 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

102 km/h Current Max.

Up to <1000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	19 Dec 2018 00:00	157	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
2	19 Dec 2018 06:00	157	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
3	19 Dec 2018 12:00	176	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
4	19 Dec 2018 18:00	194	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
5	20 Dec 2018 00:00	204	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
6	20 Dec 2018 06:00	204	60 thousand	No people	Mauritius
7	20 Dec 2018 12:00	222	100 thousand	No people	Mauritius
8	20 Dec 2018 18:00	241	670 thousand	No people	Mauritius
9	21 Dec 2018 00:00	241	670 thousand	No people	Mauritius
10	21 Dec 2018 06:00	231	4 thousand	No people	Mauritius
11	21 Dec 2018 12:00	259	340 thousand	No people	Mauritius
12	21 Dec 2018 18:00	241	470 thousand	No people	Mauritius
13	22 Dec 2018 00:00	231	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
14	22 Dec 2018 06:00	213	50 thousand	No people	Mauritius
15	22 Dec 2018 12:00	204	700 thousand	No people	Mauritius
16	22 Dec 2018 18:00	194	Few people	No people
17	23 Dec 2018 00:00	185	Few people	No people
18	23 Dec 2018 06:00	176	Few people	No people
19	23 Dec 2018 12:00	176	Few people	No people
20	23 Dec 2018 18:00	167	Few people	No people
21	24 Dec 2018 00:00	148	Few people	No people
22	24 Dec 2018 06:00	139	Few people	No people
23	24 Dec 2018 12:00	130	Few people	No people
24	24 Dec 2018 18:00	102	Few people	No people

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	19 Dec 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-10.7, 60.9
2	19 Dec 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-11, 60.8
3	19 Dec 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-11.6, 60.6
4	19 Dec 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-11.8, 60.3
5	20 Dec 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-12, 60
6	20 Dec 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-12.5, 59.5
7	20 Dec 2018 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-13.2, 59.1
8	20 Dec 2018 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	-13.8, 58.7
9	21 Dec 2018 00:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	-14.2, 58.1
10	21 Dec 2018 06:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	-14.6, 58
11	21 Dec 2018 12:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	-15.1, 57.7
12	21 Dec 2018 18:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	-15.6, 57.7
13	22 Dec 2018 00:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	-16.2, 57.9
14	22 Dec 2018 06:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	-17, 58.4
15	22 Dec 2018 12:00	Category 3	204	no people	700000 people	-18, 58.9	Mauritius
16	22 Dec 2018 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	-18.8, 59.4
17	23 Dec 2018 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	-19.7, 59.9
18	23 Dec 2018 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-21.1, 61
19	23 Dec 2018 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-22.3, 62.1
20	23 Dec 2018 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-23.4, 62.9
21	24 Dec 2018 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-24.3, 64.2
22	24 Dec 2018 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-25.3, 65.1
23	24 Dec 2018 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-26.3, 66.2
24	24 Dec 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-27.1, 67.4
24	25 Dec 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-29.4, 68.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 24 of 24 Dec 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)