Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
20 Jan 2019 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (21 Jan 22:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 102 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 102 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      102 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 7.5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.2 million people -22.3, 38.8 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 1 21 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2.4 million people -20.3, 38.4 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 1 21 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 3.5 million people -18.9, 37.7 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 1 22 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 7.4 million people -17.9, 37 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 1 23 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -16.8, 35.7 Mozambique
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mozambique
          Malawi

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Inhambane Mozambique
          Sofala Mozambique
          Manica Mozambique
          Zambezia Mozambique
          Tete Mozambique
          Nampula Mozambique
          Southern Malawi

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 190000 people
          Limbe Malawi City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Chinde INE unknown 0
          Luabo LBM unknown 0
          Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
          Inhaminga IMG unknown 0
          Pebane PEB unknown 0
          Bajone BJN unknown 0
          Mutarara 48 0
          Nsanje 61 Civ. Unpaved No 3200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Bazaruto Island Mozambique
          Chinde MZINE Mozambique
          Vila Do Chinde Mozambique
          Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique
          Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique
          Pebane MZPEB Mozambique
          Rio Moebase Mozambique
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.8 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Ocone, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2019 22:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (99 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 20 Jan 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          21 Jan 2019 22:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.8
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 22:00 Barra Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 13:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 13:00 Amado Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 22:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 14:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 14:00 Beira Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 14:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 14:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 13:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 14:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 13:00 Tama Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 13:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 17:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 15:00 Manica Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 14:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 17:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 17:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 15:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
          20 Jan 2019 16:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
          20 Jan 2019 14:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 17:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 17:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 22:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 14:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 14:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 03:00 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 20:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 12:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 23:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 02:00 Afo Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 20:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 20:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 20:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 15:00 Jo Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 14:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 20:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 12:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 12:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 12:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 17:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 17:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 17:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 23:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 16:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 16:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 16:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 16:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 13:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 16:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 16:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 05:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 01:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 02:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 01:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1