Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for POLA-19 in Tonga from 26 Feb 2019 00:00 UTC to 01 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC

01 Mar 2019 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone POLA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Tonga
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (26 Feb 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tonga)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	74 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	176 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to 110000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	26 Feb 2019 00:00	93	120 thousand	No people	Tonga
2	26 Feb 2019 06:00	93	90 thousand	No people	Tonga
3	26 Feb 2019 12:00	102	90 thousand	No people	Tonga
4	26 Feb 2019 18:00	102	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
5	27 Feb 2019 00:00	130	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
6	27 Feb 2019 06:00	167	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
7	27 Feb 2019 12:00	167	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
8	27 Feb 2019 18:00	167	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
9	28 Feb 2019 00:00	167	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
10	28 Feb 2019 06:00	176	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
11	28 Feb 2019 12:00	167	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
12	28 Feb 2019 18:00	157	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
13	01 Mar 2019 00:00	139	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
14	01 Mar 2019 06:00	120	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
15	01 Mar 2019 12:00	102	110 thousand	No people	Tonga
16	01 Mar 2019 18:00	74	110 thousand	No people	Tonga

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	26 Feb 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	17000 people	-14.9, -175.8	Tonga
2	26 Feb 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	<1000 people	-15.9, -176
3	26 Feb 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	3300 people	-16.9, -176.2
4	26 Feb 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	110000 people	-18.3, -176.5	Tonga
5	27 Feb 2019 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	95000 people	-19.3, -176.9	Tonga
6	27 Feb 2019 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	10000 people	-19.8, -177.4	Tonga
7	27 Feb 2019 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	2800 people	-20.6, -177.9
8	27 Feb 2019 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	2200 people	-21.3, -178.1
9	28 Feb 2019 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	<1000 people	-22.2, -178.1
10	28 Feb 2019 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	<1000 people	-23.4, -178
11	28 Feb 2019 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-24.4, -178.2
12	28 Feb 2019 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-25.2, -178.1
13	01 Mar 2019 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-26, -177.8
14	01 Mar 2019 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-27.2, -177.8
15	01 Mar 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-27.8, -177.3
16	01 Mar 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-28.1, -176.3
16	02 Mar 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-28.3, -172.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Tonga

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Tonga	Tonga

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Nuku'alofa		Tonga	Capital	24000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Fua'amotu International	TBU	38	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8700
Ono-I-Lau	ONU	unknown				0
Haapai	HPA	12	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	3900
Vavau International	VAV	72	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	5500

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Ata Island		Tonga
Nuku'alofa	TOTBU	Tonga
Pangai	TOPAN	Tonga
Neiafu	TONEI	Tonga

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Esia, Fiji. This height is estimated for 26 Feb 2019 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 01 Mar 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	26 Feb 2019 03:00	Esia	Fiji	0.3
	26 Feb 2019 03:00	Ndaria	Fiji	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 03:00	Napuka	Fiji	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 02:00	Leava	Wallis and Futuna	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 02:00	Alo	Wallis and Futuna	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 02:00	Mua	Wallis and Futuna	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 02:00	Mua	Wallis and Futuna	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 02:00	Mata-Utu	Wallis and Futuna	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 02:00	Hihifo	Tonga	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 02:00	Falehau	Tonga	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 03:00	Rave-rave	Fiji	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 03:00	Mbangata	Fiji	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 03:00	Savusavu	Fiji	0.1
	26 Feb 2019 03:00	Naindi	Fiji	0.1