Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia
07 Dec 2019 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Somalia, Ethiopia
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (06 Dec 21:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Somalia)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 65 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 83 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      65 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 620000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 74 1.4 million No people Somalia, Ethiopia
        Green 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 83 160 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 74 300 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 74 190 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 74 580 thousand No people Somalia, Ethiopia
        Green 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 74 40 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 74 460 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 74 710 thousand No people Somalia, Ethiopia
        Green 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 74 330 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 74 150 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 74 290 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 65 110 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 13 06 Dec 2019 00:00 65 370 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 14 06 Dec 2019 06:00 65 90 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 15 06 Dec 2019 12:00 65 640 thousand No people Somalia, Ethiopia
        Green 16 06 Dec 2019 18:00 83 840 thousand No people Somalia, Ethiopia
        Green 17 07 Dec 2019 00:00 65 620 thousand No people Somalia, Ethiopia

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 6.6, 56.1
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 6.8, 57.2
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 7, 57.5
          GREEN
          		 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 7.1, 57.6
          GREEN
          		 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 7.2, 57.7
          GREEN
          		 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 7.4, 57.7
          GREEN
          		 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 8.2, 57.2
          GREEN
          		 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 8.8, 56.8
          GREEN
          		 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 9.6, 56.2
          GREEN
          		 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 9.5, 55.9
          GREEN
          		 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 9.4, 54.9
          GREEN
          		 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 8.5, 54.2
          GREEN
          		 13 06 Dec 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 77000 people 8.1, 53.1 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 14 06 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 7.9, 53
          GREEN
          		 15 06 Dec 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 180000 people 7.6, 51.8 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 16 06 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 340000 people 8.2, 50.7 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 17 07 Dec 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 610000 people 8.2, 49.7 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 17 07 Dec 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 7.5, 47.7 Somalia
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Somalia
          Ethiopia

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Nugaal Somalia
          Bari Somalia
          Mudug Somalia
          Sool Somalia
          Harerge Ethiopia

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Eil HCM 247 Civ. Unpaved No 3100
          Garoe GGR unknown 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Eil Somalia
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in 'Ag, Somalia. This height is estimated for 06 Dec 2019 21:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (18 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 07 Dec 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          06 Dec 2019 21:00 'Ag Somalia  0.2
          06 Dec 2019 21:00 Cal Marthal Somalia  0.1
          05 Dec 2019 19:00 Deh-Cabo Somalia  0.1
          05 Dec 2019 06:00 Lakba Oman  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 23:00 Daga Laha Uein Somalia  0.1
          05 Dec 2019 19:00 Hurdiyo Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 14:00 Bandarbeyla Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 21:00 Dauli Somalia  0.1
          07 Dec 2019 02:00 Eyl Somalia  0.1
          05 Dec 2019 19:00 Aiesloho Somalia  0.1
          05 Dec 2019 19:00 Bargaal Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 13:00 Bola Cohuan Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 19:00 Sala Gon Somalia  0.1
          05 Dec 2019 19:00 Mach Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 19:00 Takhushih Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 19:00 Eddi Gellei Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 18:00 Ascira Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 18:00 Saylac Somalia  0.1