Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IRINA-12 in Juan De Nova I.,Mozambique,Swaziland,South Africa,Madagascar from 29 Feb 2012 00:00 UTC to 06 Mar 2012 12:00 UTC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IRINA-12 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Juan De Nova I.,Mozambique,Swaziland,South Africa,Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	167 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (01 Mar 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Reunion)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	84 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	167 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

84 km/h Current Max.

Up to 10.1 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	29 Feb 2012 00:00	138	No people	470 thousand	Mozambique
2	29 Feb 2012 12:00	138	No people	540 thousand	Mozambique
3	01 Mar 2012 00:00	167	No people	940 thousand	Mozambique
4	01 Mar 2012 12:00	138	---	940 thousand	Mozambique
5	02 Mar 2012 00:00	138	No people	1 million	Mozambique
6	02 Mar 2012 12:00	111	No people	No people	Mozambique,Swaziland,South Africa
7	03 Mar 2012 00:00	84	No people	No people	Mozambique,Swaziland,South Africa
8	03 Mar 2012 12:00	84	No people	No people	Mozambique,Swaziland,South Africa
9	04 Mar 2012 00:00	84	No people	No people	Mozambique,Swaziland,South Africa
10	04 Mar 2012 12:00	84	No people	No people	Mozambique,Swaziland,South Africa
11	05 Mar 2012 00:00	101	No people	No people
12	05 Mar 2012 12:00	101	---	No people
13	06 Mar 2012 00:00	84	No people	No people
14	06 Mar 2012 12:00	84	No people	No people

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	2/29/2012	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	-16.2, 43.4	Juan De Nova I.
2	2/29/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64	no people	81000 people	-16, 42.7	Juan De Nova I., Madagascar
3	3/1/2012	Tropical storm	111	no people	260000 people	-17, 43.6	Juan De Nova I., Madagascar
4	3/1/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	101	no people	290000 people	-19.7, 43.7	Madagascar
5	3/2/2012	Tropical storm	101	no people	83000 people	-22, 42.4	Madagascar
6	3/2/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	93	no people	530000 people	-24.3, 40.2	Mozambique
7	3/3/2012	Tropical storm	64	no people	5.5 million people	-25.4, 38.2	Mozambique, Swaziland, South Africa
8	3/3/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	74	no people	9.7 million people	-25.6, 35.3	Mozambique, Swaziland, South Africa
9	3/4/2012	Tropical storm	84	no people	9.6 million people	-26.3, 34.2	Mozambique, Swaziland, South Africa
10	3/4/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.4 million people	-27.3, 34	Mozambique, Swaziland, South Africa
11	3/5/2012	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-29.4, 34.5
12	3/5/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-30.6, 35.5
13	3/6/2012	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	-30.3, 37.9
14	3/6/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	-30.5, 39.2
14	3/7/2012	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-29.6, 40
14	3/7/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-28.9, 39.8

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Juan De Nova I.	Juan De Nova I.
Mozambique	Inhambane
Mozambique	Gaza
Mozambique	Maputo
Swaziland	Hhohho
Swaziland	Lubombo
Swaziland	Manzini
Swaziland	Shiselweni
South Africa	Mpumalanga
South Africa	Northern
South Africa	KwaZulu/Natal
Madagascar	Mahajanga
Madagascar	Toliara

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Maputo	Maputo	Mozambique	Capital	1.2 million people
Mbabane	Hhohho	Swaziland	Capital	76000 people
Morombe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Matola	Maputo	Mozambique	City	540000 people
Ambohibe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Maxixe		Mozambique	City	120000 people
Vryheid	KwaZulu Natal	South Africa	City	150000 people
Manzini	Manzini	Swaziland	City	110000 people
Barberton	Mpumalanga	South Africa	City	68000 people
Nelspruit	Mpumalanga	South Africa	City	110000 people
Xai-Xai	Gaza	Mozambique	City	130000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Manampea, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 01 Mar 2012 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (131 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 19 of 09 Mar 2012 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Mar 2012 03:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.8
	01 Mar 2012 03:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.7
	01 Mar 2012 03:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.7
	01 Mar 2012 03:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.7
	01 Mar 2012 03:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.7
	01 Mar 2012 02:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.6
	01 Mar 2012 02:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.6
	01 Mar 2012 02:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.6
	01 Mar 2012 02:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Mar 2012 02:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Mar 2012 03:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Mar 2012 03:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Mar 2012 06:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Mar 2012 06:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Mar 2012 06:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Mar 2012 07:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Mar 2012 07:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Mar 2012 08:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.5
		Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Mar 2012 13:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Mar 2012 15:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Mar 2012 18:00	Marofihitsa	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Mar 2012 20:00	Tsiboka	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Mar 2012 20:00	Andranopasy	Madagascar	0.4
		Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.3
		Manahy	Madagascar	0.3
		Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 02:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 04:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 07:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 13:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 14:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 15:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 15:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 16:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 16:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 17:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 18:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 18:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 19:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 20:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Mar 2012 21:00	Ankirijibe		0.3
	01 Mar 2012 23:00	Anadramy Nord	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Mar 2012 00:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2012 01:00	Ambararata	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2012 01:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.3
		Andavadoaka	Madagascar	0.2
		Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
		Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Mar 2012 11:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Mar 2012 15:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Mar 2012 22:00	Mangolovolo	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Mar 2012 22:00	Bekoropoka	Madagascar	0.2
	02 Mar 2012 00:00	Befandeva	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2012 15:00	Mahupe	Mozambique	0.2
	03 Mar 2012 15:00	Induna	Mozambique	0.2
	03 Mar 2012 20:00	Gueima	Mozambique	0.2
	04 Mar 2012 01:00	Banga		0.2
	04 Mar 2012 01:00	China	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2012 01:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.2
		Vilanculos	Mozambique	0.1
		Androka	Madagascar	0.1
		Xetoquica	Mozambique	0.1
		Miramar	Mozambique	0.1
		Cimbene	Mozambique	0.1
		Chavanine	Mozambique	0.1
		Jacob	Mozambique	0.1
		Inhampsi	Mozambique	0.1
		Nangalete	Mozambique	0.1
		Gafaria	Mozambique	0.1
		Linchica	Mozambique	0.1
		D'lhelo	Mozambique	0.1
		Siane	Mozambique	0.1
		Salary	Madagascar	0.1
		Bekodoy	Madagascar	0.1
		Ambohitrabo	Madagascar	0.1
		Ambatomilo	Madagascar	0.1
		Ambohibe	Madagascar	0.1
		Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 01:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 02:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 10:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Mar 2012 10:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Mar 2012 03:00	Andalambezo	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Mar 2012 22:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.1
	02 Mar 2012 22:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Mar 2012 08:00	Camo	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Mar 2012 08:00	Guinjala	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Mar 2012 13:00	Vila Luisa	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Mar 2012 17:00	Itampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2012 21:00	Natalia	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Mar 2012 21:00	Inhassoro	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Mar 2012 21:00	Catine	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Mar 2012 21:00	Asneira	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Mar 2012 21:00	Afonso	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Mar 2012 21:00	Caulino	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Mar 2012 00:00	Maziba	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Mar 2012 00:00	Contra Costa	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Mar 2012 01:00	Mahoa		0.1
	04 Mar 2012 01:00	Chichocane		0.1
	04 Mar 2012 01:00	Aiai	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Mar 2012 05:00	Machavene	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Mar 2012 07:00	David	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Mar 2012 08:00	Enkovukeni	South Africa	0.1
	04 Mar 2012 10:00	Mapelana	South Africa	0.1
	04 Mar 2012 11:00	Mabibi	South Africa	0.1
	04 Mar 2012 12:00	Dokodweni	South Africa	0.1
	05 Mar 2012 01:00	Ankazoabo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2012 01:00	Lavavolo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2012 01:00	Canhamba	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Mar 2012 13:00	Stanger	South Africa	0.1
	05 Mar 2012 13:00	Tinley Manor	South Africa	0.1
	05 Mar 2012 13:00	Darnall	South Africa	0.1
	05 Mar 2012 13:00	Bonds Drift	South Africa	0.1
	05 Mar 2012 13:00	Tugela Mouth	South Africa	0.1
	05 Mar 2012 17:00	Highfield	South Africa	0.1
	05 Mar 2012 18:00	Mtunzini	South Africa	0.1