Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BUD-12
in Mexico
26 May 2012 15 UTC
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  • JRC
Impact Single TC
    Impact based on all weather systems in the area

    Impact

      Tropical Cyclone BUD-12 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

      Meteorological source GDACS
      Exposed countries Mexico
      Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
      Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
      Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (26 May 00:00 UTC)
      Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

      GDACS Score

      GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
      For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
        Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
      Current 47 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
      Overall 185 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

      Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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      Wind

        47 km/h Current Max.

        Up to 720000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

        Impact Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
          Tropical Storm or higher          		 Population in
          Cat 1. or higher          		 Countries
          Green 1 21 May 2012 03:00 148 No people No people
          Green 2 21 May 2012 09:00 158 No people No people
          Green 3 21 May 2012 15:00 158 No people No people
          Orange 4 21 May 2012 21:00 148 No people No people
          Green 5 22 May 2012 03:00 148 No people No people
          Green 6 22 May 2012 09:00 148 No people No people
          Green 7 22 May 2012 15:00 64 No people No people
          Green 8 22 May 2012 21:00 93 No people No people
          Green 9 23 May 2012 03:00 74 No people No people
          Green 10 23 May 2012 09:00 93 No people No people
          Green 11 23 May 2012 15:00 121 No people No people
          Green 12 23 May 2012 21:00 101 No people No people
          Green 13 24 May 2012 03:00 138 No people No people Mexico
          Green 14 24 May 2012 09:00 158 No people No people Mexico
          Green 15 24 May 2012 15:00 175 No people No people Mexico
          Orange 16 24 May 2012 21:00 185 No people 300 thousand Mexico
          Orange 17 25 May 2012 03:00 185 No people 80 thousand Mexico
          Green 18 25 May 2012 09:00 175 No people 90 thousand Mexico
          Green 19 25 May 2012 15:00 158 No people 40 thousand Mexico
          Green 20 25 May 2012 21:00 121 No people 20 thousand Mexico
          Green 21 26 May 2012 03:00 93 No people No people Mexico
          Green 22 26 May 2012 09:00 56 No people No people
          Green 23 26 May 2012 15:00 47 No people No people

          Bulletin Timeline

            Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
            (SSHS)             		Max winds
            (km/h)             		Population in
            Cat.1 or higher             		Population in
            Tropical Storm
            or higher             		Location (lat, lon) Countries
            green
            		 1 5/21/2012 3:00:00 AM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 9.3, -99.6
            green
            		 2 5/21/2012 9:00:00 AM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 9.4, -100.1
            green
            		 3 5/21/2012 3:00:00 PM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 9.2, -101
            green
            		 4 5/21/2012 9:00:00 PM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 9.6, -101
            green
            		 5 5/22/2012 3:00:00 AM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 9.8, -101.8
            green
            		 6 5/22/2012 9:00:00 AM Tropical storm 64 no people no people 10.4, -103
            green
            		 7 5/22/2012 3:00:00 PM Tropical storm 64 no people no people 11.1, -104
            green
            		 8 5/22/2012 9:00:00 PM Tropical storm 64 no people no people 12, -105
            green
            		 9 5/23/2012 3:00:00 AM Tropical storm 64 no people no people 12.9, -105.9
            green
            		 10 5/23/2012 9:00:00 AM Tropical storm 64 no people no people 13.3, -106.5
            green
            		 11 5/23/2012 3:00:00 PM Tropical storm 101 no people no people 13.4, -107.6
            green
            		 12 5/23/2012 9:00:00 PM Tropical storm 101 no people no people 13.9, -107.8
            green
            		 13 5/24/2012 3:00:00 AM Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.2, -107.9
            green
            		 14 5/24/2012 9:00:00 AM Category 1 138 no people no people 15, -107.5
            green
            		 15 5/24/2012 3:00:00 PM Category 2 167 no people no people 15.7, -106.7
            green
            		 16 5/24/2012 9:00:00 PM Category 2 175 no people no people 16.4, -106.4
            green
            		 17 5/25/2012 3:00:00 AM Category 3 185 no people 180000 people 17.1, -105.9 Mexico
            green
            		 18 5/25/2012 9:00:00 AM Category 2 175 no people 270000 people 17.6, -105.6 Mexico
            green
            		 19 5/25/2012 3:00:00 PM Category 2 158 no people 590000 people 18.4, -105.6 Mexico
            green
            		 20 5/25/2012 9:00:00 PM Category 1 121 25000 people 720000 people 19.2, -105.5 Mexico
            green
            		 21 5/26/2012 3:00:00 AM Tropical storm 93 2900 people 500000 people 19.7, -105.6 Mexico
            green
            		 22 5/26/2012 9:00:00 AM Tropical depression 56 2500 people 470000 people 20.3, -105.7 Mexico
            green
            		 23 5/26/2012 3:00:00 PM Tropical depression 47 no people 490000 people 20.6, -105.8 Mexico
            green
            		 23 5/27/2012 Tropical depression 47 no people no people 20.8, -106 Mexico
            **
            Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
            Actual track of the current bulletin
            The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
            Download:



            Exposed population - AoIs

            Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

            Provinces

            Country Region Province
            Mexico Colima
            Mexico Jalisco
            Mexico Nayarit

            Populated places

            Name Region Province Country City class Population
            Autlán Jalisco Mexico City 40000 people
            Manzanillo Colima Mexico City 110000 people
            Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -
            Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 190000 people
            Talpa de Allende Jalisco Mexico City -

            Critical infrastructure

            Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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            Rainfall

            Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

            ...

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            StormSurge

            0.3 m

            The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Cuitzmala, Mexico. This height is estimated for 26 May 2012 00:00 UTC .

            The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

            Locations affected by Storm surge (24 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 26 May 2012 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

            Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
            26 May 2012 00:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.3
            26 May 2012 01:00 Chamela Mexico  0.3
            26 May 2012 02:00 Chola Mexico  0.3
            25 May 2012 23:00 Santiago Mexico  0.2
            25 May 2012 23:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.2
            25 May 2012 23:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.2
            26 May 2012 00:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.2
            26 May 2012 10:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
            25 May 2012 22:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
            25 May 2012 22:00 San Telmo Mexico  0.1
            25 May 2012 22:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
            25 May 2012 22:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
            25 May 2012 22:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1
            25 May 2012 22:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
            25 May 2012 22:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
            25 May 2012 23:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
            26 May 2012 12:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
            26 May 2012 12:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
            26 May 2012 12:00 Corrales Mexico  0.1
            26 May 2012 12:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
            26 May 2012 13:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
            26 May 2012 13:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
            26 May 2012 13:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
            26 May 2012 13:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1