Orange alert for wind impact in Belize, Mexico
This tropical cyclone is expected to have a medium humanitarian impact
based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.
Current storm status
This report is for advisory number 36 of tropical cyclone ERNESTO-12 issued at 8/10/2012 9:00:00 AM
(GDACS Event ID 31651,
Latest episode ID: 36).
Current impact estimate:
- Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.2million
- Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 138 km/h)
- Vulnerability of affected countries: Medium
Impact of Extreme Wind
Cloud map. The map shows the areas affected by tropical storm strength winds (green), 58mph winds (orange) and cyclone wind strengths (red). (
Source: JRC)
Affected population
Up to
220000 people
people can be affected by wind speeds of cyclone strength or above. In addition,
39000 people
people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.
Affected country
| Belize |
Corozal |
34000 people
|
| Mexico |
Quintana Roo |
530000 people
|
Affected provinces
| Belize |
Corozal |
34000 people
|
| Mexico |
Quintana Roo |
530000 people
|
Affected cities
| Chetumal |
Quintana Roo |
Mexico |
Major city |
130000 people
|
Critical infrastructure
Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.
Nearby and affected airports
| Chetumal International |
CTM |
12 |
Civ. |
Paved |
Yes |
7200 |
| Corozal Municipal |
CZH |
-9999999 |
|
|
|
|
Major ports
| Chetumal |
MXCTM |
Mexico |
| Corozal |
|
Belize |
Event time line
The storm evolution is shown in the table below. Alert levels and population estimates are related to the area from a point to the next.
| 1 |
|
8/1/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Tropical depression |
56 km/h (35 mph) |
74 km/h
(46 mph)
|
no people
|
-49,
12.2 |
| 2 |
|
8/2/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Tropical depression |
56 km/h (35 mph) |
74 km/h
(46 mph)
|
no people
|
-50.6,
12.6 |
| 3 |
|
8/2/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical depression |
56 km/h (35 mph) |
74 km/h
(46 mph)
|
no people
|
-52.6,
12.8 |
| 4 |
|
8/2/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Tropical depression |
56 km/h (35 mph) |
74 km/h
(46 mph)
|
no people
|
-54.3,
13 |
| 5 |
|
|
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
no people
|
-56.6,
12.8 |
| 6 |
|
8/3/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
no people
|
-58.3,
13.4 |
| 7 |
|
8/3/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
74 km/h (46 mph) |
93 km/h
(58 mph)
|
no people
|
-60.7,
13.5 |
| 8 |
|
8/3/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
no people
|
-62.3,
13.7 |
| 9 |
|
|
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
no people
|
-64.1,
13.9 |
| 10 |
|
8/4/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
no people
|
-65.6,
13.9 |
| 11 |
|
8/4/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
93 km/h (58 mph) |
111 km/h
(69 mph)
|
no people
|
-67.2,
14.1 |
| 12 |
|
8/4/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
no people
|
-68.7,
14.4 |
| 13 |
|
8/4/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
93 km/h (58 mph) |
111 km/h
(69 mph)
|
no people
|
-70.1,
14.8 |
| 14 |
|
8/5/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
93 km/h (58 mph) |
111 km/h
(69 mph)
|
no people
|
-72.7,
15.4 |
| 15 |
|
8/5/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
no people
|
-74.8,
15.1 |
| 16 |
|
8/5/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
no people
|
-77.1,
15 |
| 17 |
|
8/5/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
no people
|
-78.6,
15.3 |
| 18 |
|
8/6/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
no people
|
-79.7,
15 |
| 19 |
|
8/6/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
no people
|
-80.5,
15.1 |
| 20 |
|
8/6/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
101 km/h (63 mph) |
121 km/h
(75 mph)
|
no people
|
-80.5,
15.8 |
| 21 |
|
8/6/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
101 km/h (63 mph) |
121 km/h
(75 mph)
|
no people
|
-81.6,
16.2 |
| 22 |
|
8/7/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
101 km/h (63 mph) |
121 km/h
(75 mph)
|
no people
|
-82.7,
17 |
| 23 |
|
8/7/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
101 km/h (63 mph) |
121 km/h
(75 mph)
|
no people
|
-83.9,
17.5 |
| 24 |
|
8/7/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
101 km/h (63 mph) |
121 km/h
(75 mph)
|
no people
|
-85,
18.1 |
| 25 |
|
8/7/2012 6:00:00 PM |
Category 1 |
130 km/h (81 mph) |
158 km/h
(98 mph)
|
no people
|
-85.5,
18.5 |
| 26 |
|
8/7/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Category 1 |
130 km/h (81 mph) |
158 km/h
(98 mph)
|
1200 people
|
-86.2,
18.8 |
| 27 |
|
8/8/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Category 1 |
138 km/h (86 mph) |
167 km/h
(104 mph)
|
220000 people
|
-87.7,
18.7 |
| 28 |
|
8/8/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
111 km/h (69 mph) |
138 km/h
(86 mph)
|
23000 people
|
-89,
18.9 |
| 29 |
|
8/8/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
77000 people
|
-90.4,
18.7 |
| 30 |
|
8/8/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
160000 people
|
-91.5,
18.9 |
| 31 |
|
8/9/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
101 km/h (63 mph) |
121 km/h
(75 mph)
|
320000 people
|
-91.8,
18.8 |
| 32 |
|
8/9/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
111 km/h (69 mph) |
138 km/h
(86 mph)
|
590000 people
|
-93.6,
18.7 |
| 33 |
|
8/9/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
93 km/h (58 mph) |
111 km/h
(69 mph)
|
1.1 million people
|
-94.3,
18.2 |
| 34 |
|
8/9/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm |
84 km/h (52 mph) |
101 km/h
(63 mph)
|
900000 people
|
-95.2,
18.1 |
| 35 |
|
8/10/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm |
64 km/h (40 mph) |
84 km/h
(52 mph)
|
350000 people
|
-96.7,
18.1 |
| 36 |
|
8/10/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical depression |
56 km/h (35 mph) |
74 km/h
(46 mph)
|
260000 people
|
-97.8,
18 |
| 36 |
|
8/10/2012 6:00:00 PM |
Tropical depression |
47 km/h (29 mph) |
64 km/h
(40 mph)
|
no people
|
-99.4,
17.9 |
Previous advisories
For accessing reports of previous advisories, please click on the advisory number in the table below.
| 2 |  | 8/2/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
121
|
No people affected
| Dominica,Saint Lucia,Martinique |
07:09:40 GMT
|
| 3 | | 8/2/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm
|
111
|
No people affected
| |
09:15:21 GMT
|
| 4 | | 8/2/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm
|
111
|
No people affected
| |
03:17:10 GMT
|
| 6 | | 8/3/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
138
|
No people affected
| Jamaica,Barbados,Dominica,Grenada,Saint Lucia,Martinique,Saint Vincent and the Grenadines |
07:02:12 GMT
|
| 7 | | 8/3/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
138
|
No people affected
| Jamaica,Barbados,Dominica,Grenada,Saint Lucia,Martinique,Saint Vincent and the Grenadines |
09:17:30 GMT
|
| 8 | | 8/3/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Category 1
|
148
|
No people affected
| Jamaica,Saint Lucia,Saint Vincent and the Grenadines |
03:17:25 GMT
|
| 10 | | 8/4/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
138
|
No people affected
| |
07:03:23 GMT
|
| 11 | | 8/4/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
148
|
No people affected
| |
09:19:02 GMT
|
| 12 |  | 8/4/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Category 1
|
148
|
No people affected
| |
03:16:25 GMT
|
| 13 | | 8/4/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Category 1
|
148
|
No people affected
| Honduras |
08:46:42 GMT
|
| 14 | | 8/5/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
138
|
No people affected
| Belize,Mexico,Honduras,Nicaragua,Jamaica |
03:16:49 GMT
|
| 15 | | 8/5/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
138
|
No people affected
| Mexico,Guatemala,Belize,Honduras,Nicaragua |
01:17:46 GMT
|
| 16 | | 8/5/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Category 1
|
121
|
No people affected
| Mexico,Guatemala,Belize,Honduras,Nicaragua |
03:17:22 GMT
|
| 17 | | 8/5/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Category 1
|
130
|
No people affected
| Mexico,Guatemala,Belize,Honduras,Nicaragua |
08:45:35 GMT
|
| 18 | | 8/6/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
121
|
No people affected
| Mexico,Guatemala,Belize,Honduras,Nicaragua |
03:19:31 GMT
|
| 19 | | 8/6/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm
|
111
|
No people affected
| Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua |
10:15:32 GMT
|
| 20 | | 8/6/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Category 1
|
148
|
260 thousand
| Belize, Mexico |
03:49:39 GMT
|
| 21 | | 8/6/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Category 1
|
138
|
270 thousand
| Mexico, Belize |
09:16:42 GMT
|
| 22 | | 8/7/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
130
|
200 thousand
| Belize, Mexico |
07:17:29 GMT
|
| 23 | | 8/7/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
130
|
30 thousand
| Mexico |
09:21:20 GMT
|
| 24 | | 8/7/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Category 1
|
121
|
20 thousand
| Mexico |
03:18:09 GMT
|
| 25 | | 8/7/2012 6:00:00 PM |
Category 1
|
148
|
60 thousand
| Mexico |
06:16:07 GMT
|
| 26 | | 8/7/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Category 1
|
130
|
400 thousand
| Mexico |
09:17:33 GMT
|
| 27 | | 8/8/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
138
|
220 thousand
| Mexico, Belize |
03:17:57 GMT
|
| 28 | | 8/8/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
121
|
230 thousand
| Mexico, Guatemala, Belize |
09:18:14 GMT
|
| 29 | | 8/8/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm
|
101
|
230 thousand
| Mexico, Guatemala, Belize |
03:17:25 GMT
|
| 30 | | 8/8/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm
|
111
|
230 thousand
| Mexico, Guatemala |
09:17:39 GMT
|
| 31 | | 8/9/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
121
|
580 thousand
| Mexico |
03:17:42 GMT
|
| 32 | | 8/9/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Category 1
|
121
|
1.2 million
| Mexico |
09:17:31 GMT
|
| 33 | | 8/9/2012 3:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm
|
93
|
230 thousand
| Mexico |
03:16:49 GMT
|
| 34 | | 8/9/2012 9:00:00 PM |
Tropical storm
|
84
|
230 thousand
| Mexico |
09:17:32 GMT
|
| 35 | | 8/10/2012 3:00:00 AM |
Tropical storm
|
64
|
230 thousand
| Mexico |
03:17:29 GMT
|
| 36 | | 8/10/2012 9:00:00 AM |
Tropical depression
|
56
|
230 thousand
| |
09:15:57 GMT
|
More information
Data resources
For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the
GDACS Resources page.
About the data
The information on storm characteristics is taken from a web service provided
by the Pacific Disaster Center, which processes
the official advisory bulletins.
JRC calculates areas affected by high winds (wind buffers at 39, 58 and
74mph). This is done using the maximum reported wind radius (maximum of 4
quadrants) or, in case no wind radii are provided, through a regression analysis
based on historical data. JRC also calculates the area affected by storm surge
using HyFlux2 (hydrodynamic software).
Sources for data on critical infrastructure are: JRC NUMAS database
(nuclear plants), ESRI (hydro dams, 1996),
Global Discovery (airports, ports and cities).
Population data is from
LandScan 2010.
Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.