Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for GUILLERMO-15 in United States from 30 Jul 2015 03:00 UTC to 06 Aug 2015 21:00 UTC

06 Aug 2015 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GUILLERMO-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	185 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	65 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	185 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	30 Jul 2015 03:00	139	No people	No people
2	30 Jul 2015 09:00	139	No people	No people
3	30 Jul 2015 15:00	148	No people	No people
4	30 Jul 2015 21:00	148	No people	No people
5	31 Jul 2015 03:00	176	No people	No people
6	31 Jul 2015 09:00	176	No people	No people
7	31 Jul 2015 15:00	185	No people	No people
8	31 Jul 2015 21:00	185	No people	No people
9	01 Aug 2015 03:00	176	No people	No people
10	01 Aug 2015 09:00	167	No people	No people	United States
11	01 Aug 2015 15:00	167	No people	No people	United States
12	01 Aug 2015 21:00	167	No people	No people	United States
13	02 Aug 2015 03:00	167	No people	No people	United States
14	02 Aug 2015 09:00	167	No people	No people	United States
15	02 Aug 2015 15:00	167	No people	No people	United States
16	02 Aug 2015 21:00	148	No people	No people	United States
17	03 Aug 2015 03:00	139	No people	No people	United States
18	03 Aug 2015 09:00	120	No people	No people	United States
19	03 Aug 2015 15:00	111	No people	No people	United States
20	03 Aug 2015 21:00	102	No people	No people
21	04 Aug 2015 03:00	102	No people	No people
22	04 Aug 2015 09:00	111	No people	No people
23	04 Aug 2015 15:00	111	No people	No people
24	04 Aug 2015 21:00	111	No people	No people
25	05 Aug 2015 03:00	111	No people	No people
26	05 Aug 2015 09:00	102	No people	No people
27	05 Aug 2015 15:00	93	No people	No people	United States
28	05 Aug 2015 21:00	93	No people	No people
29	06 Aug 2015 03:00	83	No people	No people
30	06 Aug 2015 09:00	83	No people	No people	United States
31	06 Aug 2015 15:00	65	No people	No people	United States
32	06 Aug 2015 21:00	65	No people	No people	United States

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	30 Jul 2015 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	8.2, -125.3
2	30 Jul 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	8.5, -126.3
3	30 Jul 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	9.1, -127.5
4	30 Jul 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	9.8, -128.4
5	31 Jul 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	10.8, -129.3
6	31 Jul 2015 09:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	11.5, -130.6
7	31 Jul 2015 15:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	12.4, -132.7
8	31 Jul 2015 21:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	12.7, -134.8
9	01 Aug 2015 03:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	13.2, -136.1
10	01 Aug 2015 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	13.4, -137.4
11	01 Aug 2015 15:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	13.5, -139
12	01 Aug 2015 21:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	13.8, -140.1
13	02 Aug 2015 03:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	14, -141
14	02 Aug 2015 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	14.2, -142.3
15	02 Aug 2015 15:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	14.5, -143.5
16	02 Aug 2015 21:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	15.2, -144.1
17	03 Aug 2015 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.5, -145
18	03 Aug 2015 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	16.2, -145.4
19	03 Aug 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	16.6, -146.1
20	03 Aug 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	17.5, -146.8
21	04 Aug 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	18.1, -147.4
22	04 Aug 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	18.9, -147.7
23	04 Aug 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	19.7, -148.5
24	04 Aug 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	20.2, -149
25	05 Aug 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	20.1, -149.7
26	05 Aug 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	20.6, -150.3
27	05 Aug 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	20.5, -151.2
28	05 Aug 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	21.4, -151.7
29	06 Aug 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	21.6, -152.3
30	06 Aug 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	4300 people	21.8, -153.2	United States
31	06 Aug 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	450000 people	21.7, -154.4	United States
32	06 Aug 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.1 million people	21.7, -155.3	United States
32	07 Aug 2015 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	21.8, -157	United States
32	07 Aug 2015 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	22.4, -159.5	United States
32	08 Aug 2015 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22.9, -162.3
32	08 Aug 2015 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	23.4, -165.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
United States	1.1 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Hawaii	United States

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Kahului	Hawaii	United States	City	20000 people
Puunene	Hawaii	United States	City	-
Wailuku	Hawaii	United States	City	12000 people
Lahaina	Hawaii	United States	City	9100 people
Hilo	Hawaii	United States	City	41000 people
Kaneohe	Hawaii	United States	City	35000 people
Honolulu	Hawaii	United States	Major city	370000 people
Aiea	Hawaii	United States	City	9000 people
Pearl City	Hawaii	United States	City	31000 people
Waipahu	Hawaii	United States	City	33000 people
Wahiawa	Hawaii	United States	City	16000 people
Ewa	Hawaii	United States	City	-
Nanakuli	Hawaii	United States	City	11000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Hana	HNM	23	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Kahului	OGG	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7000
Kapalua West Maui	JHM	78				0
Upolu	UPP	29	Civ.	Paved	No	3800
Honokaa Airstrip		439				0
Kalaupapa	LUP	7				0
Upper Paauilo Airstrip		463				0
Kamuela	MUE	814	Civ.	Paved	No	5100
Molokai	MKK	138	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4400
Lanai	LNY	399	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5000
Peleau		332				0
Pepeekeo Airstrip		206				0
Panda		76				0
Mauna Kea-Honolii		427				0
Hilo International	ITO	12	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Hilo Hospital		148				0
Waimanalo Bellows	BLW	unknown				0
Kaneohe Bay Mcas		5	Mil.	Paved	Yes	7700
Kualoa Ranch		38				0
The Queen's Medical Center		31				0
Moanalua Medical Center		5				0
Kahuku Hospital		12				0
Honolulu International	HNL	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	12300
Ford Island Alf		5				0
Turtle Bay Hilton		4				0
Wheeler AFB	HHI	255	Mil.	Paved	Yes	5600
Kalaeloa (John Rodgers Field)	JRF	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8400
Dillingham	HDH	5	Mil.	Paved	No	9000

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Hana		Wake Island
Kahului		Wake Island
Lahaina		Wake Island
Pukoo		Wake Island
Honokaa		Wake Island
Mahukona		Wake Island
Kamalo		Wake Island
Kaunakakai		Wake Island
Kaumalapau Harbor		Wake Island
Hilo	USITO	Wake Island
Honolulu	USHNL	Wake Island

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 32 of 06 Aug 2015 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)