Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JOAQUIN-15 in Bahamas from 28 Sep 2015 03:00 UTC to 30 Sep 2015 21:00 UTC

30 Sep 2015 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JOAQUIN-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Bahamas
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	250 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	185 km/h	2.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	250 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

185 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.6 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	28 Sep 2015 03:00	56	No people	No people
2	28 Sep 2015 09:00	65	No people	No people
3	28 Sep 2015 15:00	74	No people	No people
4	28 Sep 2015 21:00	83	No people	No people
5	29 Sep 2015 03:00	102	No people	No people	United States
6	29 Sep 2015 09:00	102	No people	No people
7	29 Sep 2015 15:00	111	No people	No people
8	29 Sep 2015 21:00	148	No people	No people	Bahamas
9	30 Sep 2015 03:00	167	No people	No people	Bahamas
10	30 Sep 2015 09:00	176	No people	No people	Bahamas, United States
11	30 Sep 2015 15:00	185	No people	Few people	Bahamas
12	30 Sep 2015 21:00	185	No people	1.6 million	Bahamas, United States

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	28 Sep 2015 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.5, -68.7
2	28 Sep 2015 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.3, -68.9
3	28 Sep 2015 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.8, -69.6
4	28 Sep 2015 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.5, -70.2
5	29 Sep 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	26.7, -70.4
6	29 Sep 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	26.6, -70.6
7	29 Sep 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	26.5, -70.8
8	29 Sep 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	26, -71
9	30 Sep 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	25.8, -71.7
10	30 Sep 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	<1000 people	25.4, -72.5	Bahamas
11	30 Sep 2015 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	1300 people	24.7, -72.6	Bahamas
12	30 Sep 2015 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	7900 people	24.3, -73.1	Bahamas
12	01 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 2	157	1100 people	15000 people	24, -73.8	Bahamas
12	01 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 2	167	2500 people	230000 people	23.9, -74.5	Bahamas
12	02 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 2	176	1900 people	240000 people	24.5, -75	Bahamas
12	02 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	220000 people	25.8, -75	Bahamas
12	03 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 3	185	44000 people	2.6 million people	30.5, -74.5	United States
12	04 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 2	157	1.6 million people	12.4 million people	36, -75.5	United States
12	05 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	38.5, -76.5	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Bahamas	Bahamas
United States	Maryland
United States	North Carolina
United States	Virginia

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Heathsville	Virginia	United States	City	-
Lancaster	Virginia	United States	City	-
Mathews	Virginia	United States	City	-
Virginia Beach	Virginia	United States	City	430000 people
Hampton	Virginia	United States	City	150000 people
Gloucester	Virginia	United States	City	-
Norfolk	Virginia	United States	Major city	230000 people
Portsmouth	Virginia	United States	City	100000 people
Chesapeake	Virginia	United States	Major city	200000 people
Currituck	North Carolina	United States	City	-
Newport News	Virginia	United States	City	180000 people
Camden	North Carolina	United States	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Patuxent River NAS	NHK	12	Mil.	Paved	Yes	11800
Billy Mitchell	HNC	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3000
Oceana NAS	NTU	7	Mil.	Paved	Yes	11900
Fentress Alf		5	Mil.	Paved	No	8000
San Salvador	ZSA	3	Civ.	Paved	No	4500
First Flight	FFA	4	Civ.	Paved	No	3000
New Bight	NET	2	Civ.	Paved	No	4000
Rum Cay	RCY	unknown
NAS Chambers	NGU	5	Mil.	Paved	Yes	8300
Chesapeake Municipal		6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4200
Langley AFB	LFI	3	Mil.	Paved	Yes	10000
Accomack County	MFV	15	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Dare County Regional	MEO	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4300
Elizabeth City Cgas Municipal	ECG	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Norfolk International	ORF	8	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9000
Webster Olf		6	Mil.	Paved	No	5000

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Cape Charles		Wake Island
Cockburn Town		The Bahamas
Cape Henry		Wake Island
Piney Point	USPYP	Wake Island
Hampton		Wake Island
Yorktown	USYKW	Wake Island
Solomons Island		Wake Island
Cape Hatteras	USCPH	Wake Island
Sewells Point	USSWP	Wake Island
Rum Cay		The Bahamas
Cape Charles	USCCJ	Wake Island
Hampton Roads District	USPHF	Wake Island
Kitty Hawk		Wake Island

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 23 of Sat, 03 Oct 2015 13:00:00 GMT UTC. (Simulation using minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)