Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOAQUIN-15
in Bahamas
01 Oct 2015 15 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone JOAQUIN-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Bahamas
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 250 km/h
    Maximum storm surge
    Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 222 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 250 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      222 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 4100 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 28 Sep 2015 03:00 56 No people No people
        Green 2 28 Sep 2015 09:00 65 No people No people
        Green 3 28 Sep 2015 15:00 74 No people No people
        Green 4 28 Sep 2015 21:00 83 No people No people
        Green 5 29 Sep 2015 03:00 102 No people No people United States
        Green 6 29 Sep 2015 09:00 102 No people No people
        Green 7 29 Sep 2015 15:00 111 No people No people
        Green 8 29 Sep 2015 21:00 148 No people No people Bahamas
        Green 9 30 Sep 2015 03:00 167 No people No people Bahamas
        Green 10 30 Sep 2015 09:00 176 No people No people Bahamas, United States
        Green 11 30 Sep 2015 15:00 185 No people Few people Bahamas
        Green 12 30 Sep 2015 21:00 185 No people 1.6 million Bahamas, United States
        Green 13 01 Oct 2015 03:00 222 No people 1.2 million Bahamas, United States
        Green 14 01 Oct 2015 09:00 222 No people 6 thousand Bahamas
        Green 15 01 Oct 2015 15:00 222 No people 4 thousand Bahamas

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 28 Sep 2015 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 27.5, -68.7
          GREEN
          		 2 28 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 27.3, -68.9
          GREEN
          		 3 28 Sep 2015 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 27.8, -69.6
          GREEN
          		 4 28 Sep 2015 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 27.5, -70.2
          GREEN
          		 5 29 Sep 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 26.7, -70.4
          GREEN
          		 6 29 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 26.6, -70.6
          GREEN
          		 7 29 Sep 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 26.5, -70.8
          GREEN
          		 8 29 Sep 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 26, -71
          GREEN
          		 9 30 Sep 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 25.8, -71.7
          GREEN
          		 10 30 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people <1000 people 25.4, -72.5 Bahamas
          GREEN
          		 11 30 Sep 2015 15:00 Category 1 130 no people 1300 people 24.7, -72.6 Bahamas
          GREEN
          		 12 30 Sep 2015 21:00 Category 1 139 no people 7900 people 24.3, -73.1 Bahamas
          GREEN
          		 13 01 Oct 2015 03:00 Category 3 185 no people 8000 people 23.8, -73.1 Bahamas
          GREEN
          		 14 01 Oct 2015 09:00 Category 3 194 <1000 people 10000 people 23.4, -73.7 Bahamas
          GREEN
          		 15 01 Oct 2015 15:00 Category 3 204 <1000 people 11000 people 23, -73.9 Bahamas
          GREEN
          		 15 02 Oct 2015 00:00 Category 4 213 4100 people 17000 people 22.9, -74.2 Bahamas
          GREEN
          		 15 02 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 4 222 1600 people 20000 people 23.7, -74.6 Bahamas
          GREEN
          		 15 03 Oct 2015 00:00 Category 4 222 no people 19000 people 25.2, -74.4 Bahamas
          GREEN
          		 15 03 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 27.5, -73.7
          GREEN
          		 15 04 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 2 176 no people 1.2 million people 32, -73 United States
          GREEN
          		 15 05 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 1 139 no people 27 million people 36, -73.5 United States
          GREEN
          		 15 06 Oct 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 40, -72.5 United States
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Provinces

          Country Region Province
          Bahamas Bahamas

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          San Salvador ZSA 3 Civ. Paved No 4500
          Rum Cay RCY unknown
          Colonel Hill CRI 2 Civ. Paved No 3500
          Pitts Town PWN unknown
          Spring Point AXP 3 Civ. Paved No 5000

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Cockburn Town The Bahamas
          Clarence Town The Bahamas
          Crooked Island BSCRI The Bahamas
          Rum Cay The Bahamas
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0 m

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 23 of Sat, 03 Oct 2015 13:00:00 GMT UTC. (Simulation using minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)