Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JOAQUIN-15 in Bahamas from 28 Sep 2015 03:00 UTC to 08 Oct 2015 03:00 UTC

08 Oct 2015 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JOAQUIN-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Bahamas
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	250 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	102 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	250 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

102 km/h Current Max.

Up to 11.9 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	28 Sep 2015 03:00	56	No people	No people
2	28 Sep 2015 09:00	65	No people	No people
3	28 Sep 2015 15:00	74	No people	No people
4	28 Sep 2015 21:00	83	No people	No people
5	29 Sep 2015 03:00	102	No people	No people	United States
6	29 Sep 2015 09:00	102	No people	No people
7	29 Sep 2015 15:00	111	No people	No people
8	29 Sep 2015 21:00	148	No people	No people	Bahamas
9	30 Sep 2015 03:00	167	No people	No people	Bahamas
10	30 Sep 2015 09:00	176	No people	No people	Bahamas, United States
11	30 Sep 2015 15:00	185	No people	Few people	Bahamas
12	30 Sep 2015 21:00	185	No people	1.6 million	Bahamas, United States
13	01 Oct 2015 03:00	222	No people	1.2 million	Bahamas, United States
14	01 Oct 2015 09:00	222	No people	6 thousand	Bahamas
15	01 Oct 2015 15:00	222	No people	4 thousand	Bahamas
16	01 Oct 2015 21:00	222	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
17	02 Oct 2015 03:00	222	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
18	02 Oct 2015 09:00	213	No people	6 thousand	Bahamas
19	02 Oct 2015 15:00	213	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
20	02 Oct 2015 21:00	204	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
21	03 Oct 2015 03:00	204	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
22	03 Oct 2015 09:00	204	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
24	03 Oct 2015 16:00	250	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
25	03 Oct 2015 21:00	241	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
26	04 Oct 2015 03:00	213	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
27	04 Oct 2015 09:00	194	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
28	04 Oct 2015 15:00	176	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
29	04 Oct 2015 21:00	157	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
30	05 Oct 2015 03:00	139	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
31	05 Oct 2015 09:00	139	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
32	05 Oct 2015 15:00	139	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
33	05 Oct 2015 21:00	139	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
34	06 Oct 2015 03:00	139	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
35	06 Oct 2015 09:00	139	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
36	06 Oct 2015 15:00	130	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
37	06 Oct 2015 21:00	130	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
38	07 Oct 2015 03:00	130	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
39	07 Oct 2015 09:00	120	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
40	07 Oct 2015 15:00	111	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
41	07 Oct 2015 21:00	111	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
42	08 Oct 2015 03:00	102	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	28 Sep 2015 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.5, -68.7
2	28 Sep 2015 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.3, -68.9
3	28 Sep 2015 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.8, -69.6
4	28 Sep 2015 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.5, -70.2
5	29 Sep 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	26.7, -70.4
6	29 Sep 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	26.6, -70.6
7	29 Sep 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	26.5, -70.8
8	29 Sep 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	26, -71
9	30 Sep 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	25.8, -71.7
10	30 Sep 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	<1000 people	25.4, -72.5	Bahamas
11	30 Sep 2015 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	1300 people	24.7, -72.6	Bahamas
12	30 Sep 2015 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	7900 people	24.3, -73.1	Bahamas
13	01 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 3	185	no people	8000 people	23.8, -73.1	Bahamas
14	01 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 3	194	<1000 people	10000 people	23.4, -73.7	Bahamas
15	01 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 3	204	<1000 people	11000 people	23, -73.9	Bahamas
16	01 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 4	213	3300 people	180000 people	23, -74.4	Bahamas
17	02 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 4	213	3400 people	2.1 million people	22.9, -74.6	Bahamas
18	02 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 4	213	4900 people	1.3 million people	23.3, -74.7	Bahamas
19	02 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 4	213	4100 people	850000 people	23.5, -74.8	Bahamas
20	02 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 3	204	1600 people	230000 people	24.1, -74.7	Bahamas
21	03 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 3	204	<1000 people	20000 people	24.7, -74	Bahamas
22	03 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 3	204	no people	6700 people	25.2, -73.1	Bahamas
23	03 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	25.8, -72
24	03 Oct 2015 16:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	26, -71.6
25	03 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	27, -70.5
26	04 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	28, -68.9
27	04 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 3	194	no people	66000 people	29.7, -67.7	Bermuda
28	04 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 2	176	no people	66000 people	31, -66.8	Bermuda
29	04 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 2	157	no people	66000 people	32.2, -66.4	Bermuda
30	05 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	66000 people	33.1, -65.5	Bermuda
31	05 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	66000 people	34.1, -65.2	Bermuda
32	05 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	66000 people	35, -64.6	Bermuda
33	05 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	35.8, -64
34	06 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	36.8, -62.7
35	06 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	37.5, -61
36	06 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	38.3, -59.6
37	06 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	39, -56.9
38	07 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	40, -53.1
39	07 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	40.5, -49.4
40	07 Oct 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	41, -45.6
41	07 Oct 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	5200 people	41.5, -41	Portugal
42	08 Oct 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	5200 people	42, -37	Portugal
42	08 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	120000 people	42.5, -32.5	Portugal
42	09 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	84000 people	42.8, -26.5	Portugal
42	09 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	42.5, -22
42	10 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	42.5, -19
42	11 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	8.5 million people	42, -14.5	Portugal
42	12 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	9.4 million people	40.5, -11	Portugal
42	13 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	39, -10.5	Portugal

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Portugal	Viana do Castelo
Portugal	Lisboa
Portugal	Azores
Spain	Galicia
Portugal	Setubal
Portugal	Beja
Portugal	Santarem
Portugal	Guarda
Portugal	Faro
Portugal	Viseu
Portugal	Braga
Portugal	Leiria
Portugal	Portalegre
Portugal	Coimbra
Portugal	Evora
Portugal	Aveiro
Portugal	Castelo Branco
Portugal	Porto
Cuba	Camaguey
Cuba	Granma
Cuba	Santiago de Cuba
Bermuda	Bermuda
Cuba	Las Tunas
Turks and Caicos Islands	Turks & Caicos Is.
Cuba	Guantanamo
United States	Guantanamo Bay
Bahamas	Bahamas
Cuba	Holguin

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Matosinhos	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	City	28000 people
Torres Vedras	Lisboa (Lisbon)	Portugal	City	24000 people
Cascais	Lisboa (Lisbon)	Portugal	City	36000 people
Angra do Heroísmo	Açores (Azores)	Portugal	City	-
Vila Nova de Ourém	Santarém	Portugal	City	-
Póvoa de Varzim	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	City	27000 people
Marín	Galicia	Spain	City	24000 people
Leiria	Leiria	Portugal	City	45000 people
Ílhavo	Aveiro	Portugal	City	17000 people
Holguín	Holguín	Cuba	City	310000 people
Évora	Évora	Portugal	City	44000 people
Coimbra	Coimbra	Portugal	Major city	110000 people
Nuevitas	Camagüey	Cuba	City	53000 people
Bougado	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	City	21000 people
Leça do Bailio	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	City	16000 people
Porriño	Galicia	Spain	City	-
Ovar	Aveiro	Portugal	City	18000 people
Vigo	Galicia	Spain	Major city	290000 people
Beja	Beja	Portugal	City	24000 people
Almada	Setúbal	Portugal	City	33000 people
Viana do Castelo	Viana do Castelo	Portugal	City	15000 people
Fafe	Braga	Portugal	City	17000 people
Alfena	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	City	14000 people
Entroncamento	Santarém	Portugal	City	20000 people
Barreiro	Setúbal	Portugal	City	51000 people
Santo Tirso	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	City	14000 people
Bueu	Galicia	Spain	City	12000 people
Espinho	Aveiro	Portugal	City	9400 people
Tomar	Santarém	Portugal	City	19000 people
Avintes	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	City	12000 people
Porto	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	Major city	250000 people
Baiona	Galicia	Spain	City	11000 people
Figueira da Foz	Coimbra	Portugal	City	12000 people
Queluz	Lisboa (Lisbon)	Portugal	City	100000 people
Vila do Conde	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	City	27000 people
Cacém	Lisboa (Lisbon)	Portugal	City	-
Gondomar	Galicia	Spain	City	12000 people
San Germán	Holguín	Cuba	City	-
Viseu	Viseu	Portugal	City	26000 people
Redondela	Galicia	Spain	City	30000 people
Lagos	Faro	Portugal	City	19000 people
Marinha Grande	Leiria	Portugal	City	29000 people
Amadora	Lisboa (Lisbon)	Portugal	Major city	180000 people
Setúbal	Setúbal	Portugal	City	110000 people
Hamilton		Bermuda	Capital	<1000 people
Guantánamo	Guantánamo	Cuba	City	260000 people
Peniche	Leiria	Portugal	City	15000 people
Banes	Holguín	Cuba	City	52000 people
Montijo	Setúbal	Portugal	City	29000 people
São João da Madeira	Aveiro	Portugal	City	21000 people
Pinhal Novo	Setúbal	Portugal	City	23000 people
Sacavém	Lisboa (Lisbon)	Portugal	City	18000 people
Pedroso	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	City	-
Santa Uxía	Galicia	Spain	City	-
Pombal	Leiria	Portugal	City	17000 people
Valongo	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	City	21000 people
Alverca do Ribatejo	Lisboa (Lisbon)	Portugal	City	31000 people
Sanxenxo	Galicia	Spain	City	16000 people
Aveiro	Aveiro	Portugal	City	54000 people
Cangas	Galicia	Spain	City	24000 people
Cambados	Galicia	Spain	City	13000 people
Portimão	Faro	Portugal	City	35000 people
Guimarães	Braga	Portugal	City	38000 people
Braga	Braga	Portugal	City	120000 people
Lisboa	Lisboa (Lisbon)	Portugal	Capital	510000 people
Baracoa	Guantánamo	Cuba	City	47000 people
Moita	Setúbal	Portugal	City	17000 people
Nassau	Bahamas	The Bahamas	Capital	230000 people
Palma Soriano	Santiago de Cuba	Cuba	City	100000 people
Caldas da Rainha	Leiria	Portugal	City	26000 people
Vila Nova de Gaia	Porto (Oporto)	Portugal	City	70000 people
Puebla del Caramiñal	Galicia	Spain	City	-
Santarém	Santarém	Portugal	City	27000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 23 of Sat, 03 Oct 2015 13:00:00 GMT UTC. (Simulation using minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)