Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JOAQUIN-15 in Bahamas from 28 Sep 2015 03:00 UTC to 05 Oct 2015 21:00 UTC

05 Oct 2015 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JOAQUIN-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Bahamas
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	250 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	139 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	250 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 5300 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	28 Sep 2015 03:00	56	No people	No people
2	28 Sep 2015 09:00	65	No people	No people
3	28 Sep 2015 15:00	74	No people	No people
4	28 Sep 2015 21:00	83	No people	No people
5	29 Sep 2015 03:00	102	No people	No people	United States
6	29 Sep 2015 09:00	102	No people	No people
7	29 Sep 2015 15:00	111	No people	No people
8	29 Sep 2015 21:00	148	No people	No people	Bahamas
9	30 Sep 2015 03:00	167	No people	No people	Bahamas
10	30 Sep 2015 09:00	176	No people	No people	Bahamas, United States
11	30 Sep 2015 15:00	185	No people	Few people	Bahamas
12	30 Sep 2015 21:00	185	No people	1.6 million	Bahamas, United States
13	01 Oct 2015 03:00	222	No people	1.2 million	Bahamas, United States
14	01 Oct 2015 09:00	222	No people	6 thousand	Bahamas
15	01 Oct 2015 15:00	222	No people	4 thousand	Bahamas
16	01 Oct 2015 21:00	222	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
17	02 Oct 2015 03:00	222	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
18	02 Oct 2015 09:00	213	No people	6 thousand	Bahamas
19	02 Oct 2015 15:00	213	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
20	02 Oct 2015 21:00	204	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
21	03 Oct 2015 03:00	204	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
22	03 Oct 2015 09:00	204	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
24	03 Oct 2015 16:00	250	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
25	03 Oct 2015 21:00	241	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
26	04 Oct 2015 03:00	213	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
27	04 Oct 2015 09:00	194	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
28	04 Oct 2015 15:00	176	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
29	04 Oct 2015 21:00	157	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
30	05 Oct 2015 03:00	139	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
31	05 Oct 2015 09:00	139	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
32	05 Oct 2015 15:00	139	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas
33	05 Oct 2015 21:00	139	No people	5 thousand	Bahamas

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	28 Sep 2015 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.5, -68.7
2	28 Sep 2015 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.3, -68.9
3	28 Sep 2015 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.8, -69.6
4	28 Sep 2015 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.5, -70.2
5	29 Sep 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	26.7, -70.4
6	29 Sep 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	26.6, -70.6
7	29 Sep 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	26.5, -70.8
8	29 Sep 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	26, -71
9	30 Sep 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	25.8, -71.7
10	30 Sep 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	<1000 people	25.4, -72.5	Bahamas
11	30 Sep 2015 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	1300 people	24.7, -72.6	Bahamas
12	30 Sep 2015 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	7900 people	24.3, -73.1	Bahamas
13	01 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 3	185	no people	8000 people	23.8, -73.1	Bahamas
14	01 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 3	194	<1000 people	10000 people	23.4, -73.7	Bahamas
15	01 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 3	204	<1000 people	11000 people	23, -73.9	Bahamas
16	01 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 4	213	3300 people	180000 people	23, -74.4	Bahamas
17	02 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 4	213	3400 people	2.1 million people	22.9, -74.6	Bahamas
18	02 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 4	213	4900 people	1.3 million people	23.3, -74.7	Bahamas
19	02 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 4	213	4100 people	850000 people	23.5, -74.8	Bahamas
20	02 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 3	204	1600 people	230000 people	24.1, -74.7	Bahamas
21	03 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 3	204	<1000 people	20000 people	24.7, -74	Bahamas
22	03 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 3	204	no people	6700 people	25.2, -73.1	Bahamas
23	03 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	25.8, -72
24	03 Oct 2015 16:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	26, -71.6
25	03 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	27, -70.5
26	04 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	28, -68.9
27	04 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 3	194	no people	66000 people	29.7, -67.7	Bermuda
28	04 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 2	176	no people	66000 people	31, -66.8	Bermuda
29	04 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 2	157	no people	66000 people	32.2, -66.4	Bermuda
30	05 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	66000 people	33.1, -65.5	Bermuda
31	05 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	66000 people	34.1, -65.2	Bermuda
32	05 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	66000 people	35, -64.6	Bermuda
33	05 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	35.8, -64
33	06 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	37.1, -61.7
33	06 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	38.7, -57.3
33	07 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	40, -51
33	07 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	41.4, -43.4
33	08 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	44, -28.8
33	09 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	45.6, -20.7
33	10 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	48, -14

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Bahamas	Bahamas

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Colonel Hill	CRI	2	Civ.	Paved	No	3500
Rum Cay	RCY	unknown
Deadmans Cay	LGI	3	Priv.	Paved	No	4000
Stella Maris	SML	3	Priv.	Paved	No	3700
San Salvador	ZSA	3	Civ.	Paved	No	4500
Spring Point	AXP	3	Civ.	Paved	No	5000
Pitts Town	PWN	unknown

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Crooked Island	BSCRI	The Bahamas
Cockburn Town		The Bahamas
Rum Cay		The Bahamas
Clarence Town		The Bahamas

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 23 of Sat, 03 Oct 2015 13:00:00 GMT UTC. (Simulation using minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)