Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for CHAPALA-15
Off-shore
01 Nov 2015 12 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
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Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone CHAPALA-15 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries
    Exposed population 340 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (03 Nov 00:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability --

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 157 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 222 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      157 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 390000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 28 Oct 2015 18:00 194 --- 20 thousand Yemen
        Green 2 29 Oct 2015 00:00 194 --- 40 thousand Yemen
        Green 3 29 Oct 2015 06:00 213 --- 40 thousand Yemen
        Green 4 29 Oct 2015 12:00 213 --- 40 thousand Yemen
        Orange 5 29 Oct 2015 18:00 213 --- 60 thousand Yemen
        Orange 6 30 Oct 2015 00:00 213 --- 60 thousand Yemen
        Orange 7 30 Oct 2015 06:00 185 --- 60 thousand Yemen
        Orange 8 30 Oct 2015 12:00 222 --- 70 thousand Yemen
        Orange 11 31 Oct 2015 06:00 167 --- 90 thousand Yemen
        Orange 12 31 Oct 2015 12:00 139 --- 290 thousand Yemen
        Orange 14 01 Nov 2015 00:00 176 --- 610 thousand Yemen, Saudi Arabia
        Orange 15 01 Nov 2015 06:00 139 --- 220 thousand Yemen
        Orange 16 01 Nov 2015 12:00 157 --- 390 thousand Yemen

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 28 Oct 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, 64.7
          GREEN
          		 2 29 Oct 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.5, 64.2
          GREEN
          		 3 29 Oct 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 13.8, 63.8
          GREEN
          		 4 29 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.2, 63.1
          GREEN
          		 5 29 Oct 2015 18:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 14.3, 62.3
          GREEN
          		 6 30 Oct 2015 00:00 Category 2 176 no people no people 14.2, 61.8
          GREEN
          		 7 30 Oct 2015 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 14.2, 61.1
          GREEN
          		 8 30 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 14, 60.5
          GREEN
          		 11 31 Oct 2015 06:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.9, 58.7
          GREEN
          		 12 31 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.8, 57.9
          GREEN
          		 14 01 Nov 2015 00:00 Category 4 213 no people 56000 people 13.6, 56.4 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 15 01 Nov 2015 06:00 Category 3 194 no people 57000 people 13.4, 55.7 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 16 01 Nov 2015 12:00 Category 3 194 no people 57000 people 13.4, 54.6 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 16 02 Nov 2015 00:00 Category 2 176 no people 72000 people 13.4, 52.6 Yemen
          ORANGE
          		 16 02 Nov 2015 12:00 Category 2 157 240000 people 690000 people 13.7, 50.7 Yemen
          ORANGE
          		 16 03 Nov 2015 00:00 Category 1 130 370000 people 840000 people 14.4, 48.9 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 16 03 Nov 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.4, 47.8 Yemen
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Provinces

          Country Region Province
          Yemen Hadhramaut
          Yemen 'Ataq

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Al Mukalla Yemen City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Mukalla MKX unknown
          Riyan RIY 16 Civ. Paved Yes 9800

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Mukalla YEMKX Yemen
          Ash Shihr Yemen
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Burum, Yemen. This height is estimated for 03 Nov 2015 00:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (18 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 01 Nov 2015 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          03 Nov 2015 00:00 Burum Yemen  0.3
          02 Nov 2015 23:00 Zulumah Yemen  0.3
          03 Nov 2015 00:00 Fuwwah Yemen  0.3
          02 Nov 2015 23:00 Al Mukalla Yemen  0.3
          02 Nov 2015 23:00 Al Juwaibiyat Yemen  0.2
          01 Nov 2015 15:00 Hadiboh Yemen  0.2
          03 Nov 2015 01:00 As Sufal Yemen  0.2
          02 Nov 2015 22:00 Al-Raiyan Yemen  0.2
          01 Nov 2015 16:00 Qashlu Yemen  0.2
          01 Nov 2015 15:00 Qadub Yemen  0.1
          01 Nov 2015 17:00 Ghubbah Yemen  0.1
          01 Nov 2015 17:00 Qulansiyah Yemen  0.1
          02 Nov 2015 20:00 Khird Yemen  0.1
          02 Nov 2015 20:00 Hami Yemen  0.1
          02 Nov 2015 20:00 Dhafghan Yemen  0.1
          01 Nov 2015 12:00 Siqirah Yemen  0.1
          02 Nov 2015 21:00 Ash Shihr Yemen  0.1
          01 Nov 2015 18:00 Steroh Yemen  0.1