Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DAHLIA-17 in Indonesia, Christmas Island from 30 Nov 2017 00:00 UTC to 02 Dec 2017 12:00 UTC

02 Dec 2017 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DAHLIA-17 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Indonesia, Christmas Island
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	130 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (02 Dec 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	-- (Indonesia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	74 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	130 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to 14.9 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	30 Nov 2017 00:00	102	2 thousand	No people	Christmas Island
2	30 Nov 2017 06:00	93	160 thousand	No people	Indonesia, Christmas Island
3	30 Nov 2017 12:00	102	15.2 million	No people	Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia
4	30 Nov 2017 18:00	102	14.9 million	No people	Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia
5	01 Dec 2017 00:00	102	14.9 million	No people	Indonesia, Christmas Island
6	01 Dec 2017 06:00	111	14.9 million	No people	Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia
7	01 Dec 2017 12:00	120	14.9 million	No people	Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia
8	01 Dec 2017 18:00	130	14.9 million	No people	Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia
9	02 Dec 2017 00:00	120	14.9 million	No people	Indonesia, Christmas Island
10	02 Dec 2017 06:00	102	14.9 million	No people	Indonesia, Christmas Island
11	02 Dec 2017 12:00	74	14.9 million	No people	Indonesia, Christmas Island

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	30 Nov 2017 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1500 people	-8.9, 104.4	Christmas Island
2	30 Nov 2017 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	160000 people	-8.9, 106.2	Christmas Island
3	30 Nov 2017 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	15.1 million people	-9.3, 107.6	Christmas Island
4	30 Nov 2017 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-9.6, 108.1
5	01 Dec 2017 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-9.7, 109
6	01 Dec 2017 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-10.2, 109.6
7	01 Dec 2017 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-10.5, 110.5
8	01 Dec 2017 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-10.9, 110.7
9	02 Dec 2017 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-10.9, 110.8
10	02 Dec 2017 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-10.8, 110.7
11	02 Dec 2017 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-11.2, 112
11	03 Dec 2017 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-12.6, 112.1
11	03 Dec 2017 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-14.6, 111.8
11	04 Dec 2017 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-16.9, 111.2
11	04 Dec 2017 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-17.9, 111.2
11	05 Dec 2017 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	-18.8, 112.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Indonesia
Christmas I.

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Jawa Tengah	Indonesia
Jawa Barat	Indonesia
Christmas I.	Christmas Island

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Garut	Jawa Barat	Indonesia	City	120000 people
Soreang	Jawa Barat	Indonesia	City	150000 people
The Settlement		Christmas Island	Capital	<1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Tunggul Wulung		21	Civ.	Paved	No	4500
Cilacap Wulung	CXP	unknown				0
Pangandaran		5				0
Cibeureum		366				0
Christmas Island	XCH	279	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Tjilatjap, Java	IDTJI	Indonesia
Cilacap	IDCXP	Indonesia
Christmas Island		Christmas Island
Genteng		Indonesia

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Semarang, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 02 Dec 2017 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (26 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 02 Dec 2017 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Semarang	Indonesia	0.2
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Jepara	Indonesia	0.2
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Bugel	Indonesia	0.2
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Karanggondang	Indonesia	0.2
	02 Dec 2017 00:00	Sidaju	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 00:00	Aermata	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Sungaitulak	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Karangroto	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 02:00	Padangtikar	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 08:00	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 02:00	Doesoen Besar	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 02:00	Sungaibuaja	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Siduk	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 00:00	Wedung	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Kedungmalang	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Sapulu	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Ketapang	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Tlagabiru	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Kendal	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Mangkang-Kulan	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 13:00	Klampis	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 08:00	Setiroek	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Ketapang	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Telukawah	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 01:00	Brondong	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Dec 2017 09:00	Pagetan	Indonesia	0.1