Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
05 Jan 2018 00 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (05 Jan 18:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 167 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      167 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 1.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 111 11.4 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 111 13.8 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 120 13.4 million 360 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.4 million 970 thousand Madagascar
        Red 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 130 18.2 million 1.8 million Madagascar
        Orange 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 130 16.5 million 6 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 130 17.2 million 1.1 million Madagascar
        Orange 9 04 Jan 2018 18:00 130 17.6 million 470 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 10 05 Jan 2018 00:00 167 18.3 million 1.3 million Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.2, 52.6
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.4, 52.9
          GREEN
          		 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16, 53.1
          GREEN
          		 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 16000 people -16.6, 53.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.2 million people -17.3, 52.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.7 million people -17.8, 52.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 3.6 million people -17.4, 51.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 9 04 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 4.3 million people -17.3, 51 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 10 05 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 139 200000 people 10 million people -17.2, 50.5 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 10 05 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 830000 people 13.8 million people -17.7, 49.7 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 10 06 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 630000 people 15.1 million people -18.7, 49.1 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 10 06 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 130 300000 people 14.9 million people -20.1, 48.9 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 10 07 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 130 no people 13.6 million people -21.7, 49 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 10 08 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 139 no people 6 million people -23.7, 49 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 10 09 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people 1.6 million people -26.1, 48 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 10 10 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -28.6, 49
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Sainte Marie SMS 2 Civ. Paved No 3300
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Fenerive Madagascar
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Tamatave, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Jan 2018 18:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (172 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 05 Jan 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.7
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.6
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.6
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.6
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.6
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.6
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.6
          05 Jan 2018 20:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.6
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 04:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 16:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 07:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 08:00 Esama Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 07:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 04:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 09:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Savana Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 21:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 05:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 09:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 09:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 13:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 05:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 09:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 13:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 19:00 Ampatsinakoho Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 14:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 16:00 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 15:00 Ampataka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 15:00 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
          09 Jan 2018 00:00 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
          09 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1