Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for AVA-18 in Madagascar from 02 Jan 2018 18:00 UTC to 05 Jan 2018 18:00 UTC

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GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2018-000001-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.9 m (05 Jan 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	120 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	176 km/h	0.9 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

120 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	02 Jan 2018 18:00	120	16.2 million	1.3 million	Madagascar
2	03 Jan 2018 00:00	111	11.4 million	No people	Madagascar
3	03 Jan 2018 06:00	111	13.8 million	No people	Madagascar
4	03 Jan 2018 12:00	120	13.4 million	360 thousand	Madagascar
5	03 Jan 2018 18:00	120	16.4 million	970 thousand	Madagascar
6	04 Jan 2018 00:00	130	18.2 million	1.8 million	Madagascar
7	04 Jan 2018 06:00	130	16.5 million	6 thousand	Madagascar
8	04 Jan 2018 12:00	130	17.2 million	1.1 million	Madagascar
9	04 Jan 2018 18:00	130	17.6 million	470 thousand	Madagascar
10	05 Jan 2018 00:00	167	18.3 million	1.3 million	Madagascar
11	05 Jan 2018 06:00	176	17.7 million	1.3 million	Madagascar
12	05 Jan 2018 12:00	167	18.3 million	2.4 million	Madagascar
13	05 Jan 2018 18:00	120	18.4 million	1.9 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	02 Jan 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-15.4, 53.3
2	03 Jan 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-15.2, 52.6
3	03 Jan 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-15.4, 52.9
4	03 Jan 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-16, 53.1
5	03 Jan 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	16000 people	-16.6, 53.2	Madagascar
6	04 Jan 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.2 million people	-17.3, 52.5	Madagascar
7	04 Jan 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.7 million people	-17.8, 52.1	Madagascar
8	04 Jan 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	3.6 million people	-17.4, 51.4	Madagascar
9	04 Jan 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	4.3 million people	-17.3, 51	Madagascar
10	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Category 1	139	200000 people	10 million people	-17.2, 50.5	Madagascar
11	05 Jan 2018 06:00	Category 2	176	650000 people	12 million people	-17.9, 50	Madagascar
12	05 Jan 2018 12:00	Category 2	167	1.3 million people	14.7 million people	-18.2, 49.4	Madagascar
13	05 Jan 2018 18:00	Category 1	120	1.6 million people	13.6 million people	-18.6, 49	Madagascar
13	06 Jan 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	13.3 million people	-19.7, 48.5	Madagascar
13	06 Jan 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	8 million people	-20.9, 48.5	Madagascar
13	07 Jan 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	9.7 million people	-22.5, 48.6	Madagascar
13	07 Jan 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	9.6 million people	-23.8, 48.5	Madagascar
13	08 Jan 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	5.3 million people	-25.4, 47.9	Madagascar
13	09 Jan 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	2.9 million people	-26.6, 47.4	Madagascar
13	10 Jan 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-28.2, 47.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Antananarivo	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Tamatave	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	200000 people
Moramanga	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	29000 people
Fenerive	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Toamasina	TMM	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Andevoranto		Madagascar
Tamatave (Toamasina)	MGTMM	Madagascar
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar
Foulpointe		Madagascar
Fenerive		Madagascar
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.9m in Tamatave, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Jan 2018 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (207 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 05 Jan 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Jan 2018 12:00	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.9
	05 Jan 2018 12:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.8
	05 Jan 2018 13:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.7
	05 Jan 2018 13:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.6
	05 Jan 2018 14:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.6
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Jan 2018 21:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Jan 2018 21:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Jan 2018 11:00	Ambodihariha	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Jan 2018 02:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Jan 2018 02:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Jan 2018 21:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Jan 2018 11:00	Antetezambaro	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 21:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 02:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Jan 2018 23:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 08:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 11:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Jan 2018 21:00	Manambondro	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Jan 2018 21:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2018 02:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2018 10:00	Sainte-Luce	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 02:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 10:00	Vohitsara	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2018 04:00	Esama	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2018 03:00	Ankaramanihy	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2018 07:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2018 07:00	Ambinanysahavary	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 07:00	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 01:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 23:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 10:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 12:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Jan 2018 15:00	Tolanaro	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 00:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 00:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 00:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 00:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 06:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 03:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 03:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Jan 2018 07:00	Vatomirindry	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Jan 2018 07:00	Ambanihazo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Jan 2018 01:00	Amberio	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 02:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 08:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Jan 2018 07:00	Antsotso Avaratra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 22:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 00:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 12:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 17:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 01:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Jan 2018 18:00	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 23:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 15:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 15:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 17:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 04:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Jan 2018 18:00	Faux-Cap	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 18:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 18:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 04:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 08:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 06:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 19:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 17:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 02:00	Manakara	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 07:00	Farafangana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Jan 2018 18:00	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Jan 2018 09:00	Marokoky	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Jan 2018 05:00	Ambazoamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 21:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 09:00	Manambotra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Jan 2018 02:00	Mitriaky	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2018 01:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2018 01:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 06:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 21:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 01:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 02:00	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 02:00	Tataho	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Jan 2018 06:00	Befamata	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Jan 2018 14:00	Zavo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 14:00	Vodivola	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 04:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2018 01:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2018 01:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 05:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2018 23:00	Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 01:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 11:00	Sarahanonoy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Jan 2018 13:00	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2018 01:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 23:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 23:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 06:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 06:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Jan 2018 23:00	Pakapakaina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 08:00	Tsivala	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 12:00	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 12:00	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2018 01:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Jan 2018 01:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 03:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 12:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 08:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 11:00	Bemahala	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 19:00	Amboananto	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 18:00	Ambalanosy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 05:00	Antanandava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 18:00	Ankaratravitra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 01:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Jan 2018 01:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 05:00	Ampasimpolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 09:00	Elanja	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2018 02:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 12:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 07:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 07:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 16:00	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 05:00	Maroloha	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 05:00	Belay	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 18:00	Ampary	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 02:00	Talaky	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Jan 2018 01:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2018 02:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2018 21:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 00:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Jan 2018 22:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 02:00	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 17:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Jan 2018 02:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Jan 2018 02:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 06:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 02:00	Analapetsa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 15:00	Antavy Atsimo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 05:00	Iambaro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 16:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2018 02:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2018 21:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2018 02:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 14:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 12:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 12:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 12:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 12:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Jan 2018 03:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Jan 2018 07:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Jan 2018 21:00	Marohita	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Jan 2018 18:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Jan 2018 04:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 02:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 05:00	Ankilihago	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Jan 2018 05:00	Esanta	Madagascar	0.1