Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
06 Jan 2018 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (05 Jan 09:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 111 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      111 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 19.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 111 11.4 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 111 13.8 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 120 13.4 million 360 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.4 million 970 thousand Madagascar
        Red 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 130 18.2 million 1.8 million Madagascar
        Orange 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 130 16.5 million 6 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 130 17.2 million 1.1 million Madagascar
        Orange 9 04 Jan 2018 18:00 130 17.6 million 470 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 10 05 Jan 2018 00:00 167 18.3 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 11 05 Jan 2018 06:00 176 17.7 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Red 12 05 Jan 2018 12:00 167 18.3 million 2.4 million Madagascar
        Red 13 05 Jan 2018 18:00 120 18.4 million 1.9 million Madagascar
        Orange 14 06 Jan 2018 00:00 111 19.3 million 2.6 million Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.2, 52.6
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.4, 52.9
          GREEN
          		 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16, 53.1
          GREEN
          		 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 16000 people -16.6, 53.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.2 million people -17.3, 52.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.7 million people -17.8, 52.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 3.6 million people -17.4, 51.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 9 04 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 4.3 million people -17.3, 51 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 10 05 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 139 200000 people 10 million people -17.2, 50.5 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 11 05 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 650000 people 12 million people -17.9, 50 Madagascar
          RED
          		 12 05 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 1.3 million people 14.7 million people -18.2, 49.4 Madagascar
          RED
          		 13 05 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 1.6 million people 13.6 million people -18.6, 49 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 14 06 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 16.1 million people -19.1, 48.3 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 14 06 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 17.2 million people -20.2, 48.1 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 14 07 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 16.8 million people -21.5, 48.2 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 14 07 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 14.8 million people -22.8, 48.3 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 14 08 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 8.8 million people -24.1, 48.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 14 09 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 2 million people -26.4, 47.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 14 10 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -27.9, 49
          GREEN
          		 14 11 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -28.7, 51.3
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Antananarivo Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar
          Mahajanga Madagascar
          Toliara Madagascar
          Antsiranana Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Moramanga Toamasina Madagascar City 29000 people
          Antananarivo Antananarivo Madagascar Capital 1.4 million people
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
          Antsirabe Antananarivo Madagascar City 150000 people
          Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people
          Saka Antananarivo Madagascar City -
          Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -
          Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people
          Fianarantsoa Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 160000 people
          Sahasinaka Fianarantsoa Madagascar City -
          Ambato Boeni Mahajanga Madagascar City -
          Manakara Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 35000 people
          Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
          Mandritsara Mahajanga Madagascar City -
          Farafangana Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 25000 people
          Ihosy Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 17000 people
          Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 24000 people
          Manja Toliara Madagascar City -
          Antalaha Antsiranana Madagascar City 34000 people
          Betroka Toliara Madagascar City -
          Ankazoabo Toliara Madagascar City 26000 people
          Tolanaro Madagascar City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Antananarivo Ivato TNR 1279 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
          Antananarivo Arivonimamo 1450 0
          Ambatondrazaka WAM 766 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
          Antsirabe ATJ 1523 Civ. Unpaved No 4900
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Andriamena WAD unknown 0
          Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Tsiroanomandidy WTS 846 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
          Tsaratanana TTS 327 Civ. Unpaved No 4300
          Sainte Marie SMS 2 Civ. Paved No 3300
          Fianarantsoa WFI 1115 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Miandrivazo ZVA 62 Civ. Paved No 3600
          Ambatolahy AHY unknown 0
          Ambatomainty AMY unknown 0
          Ankavandra JVA 130 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Malaimbandy WML 182 Civ. Unpaved No 3900
          Ambalavao 972 Civ. Unpaved No 3600
          Manakara Sud WVK 10 Civ. Paved No 3900
          Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Mandritsara WMA 307 Civ. Unpaved No 3700
          Morafenobe TVA unknown 0
          Antsalova WAQ 168 Civ. Unpaved No 3000
          Belo Sur Tsiribihina BMD 47 Civ. Paved No 4400
          Mandabe WMD 290 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
          Farafangana RVA 8 Civ. Unpaved No 3400
          Ihosy IHO 762 Civ. Unpaved No 5400
          Beroroha WBO 250 Civ. Unpaved No 3100
          Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Morondava MOQ 7 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Manja MJA 240 Civ. Unpaved No 5200
          Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
          Ankazoabo WAK 430 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
          Bekily OVA 387 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
          Betioky BKU unknown 0
          Tolagnaro FTU 8 Civ. Paved No 5900
          Ampanihy AMP 235 Civ. Unpaved No 3600

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Fenerive Madagascar
          Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar
          Port Sainte Marie Madagascar
          Saint Mary Island Madagascar
          Manakara MGWVK Madagascar
          Mananara MGWMR Madagascar
          Farafangana MGRVA Madagascar
          Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
          Morondava MGMOQ Madagascar
          Antataha MGANM Madagascar
          Manantenina Madagascar
          Ste Luce Madagascar
          Tolanaro MGFTU Madagascar
          Faux Cap Madagascar
          Androka MGADK Madagascar

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Mantasoa Varahina-Nord 1938
          Tsiazompaniry Varahina-Sud 1956
          Antanifotsy Antanifotsy 1958
          Sahamaloto Sahamaloto 1958
          Amboromalandy 1934
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Vohitsara, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Jan 2018 09:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (171 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 06 Jan 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.6
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.6
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.6
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.6
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.6
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.6
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.4
          07 Jan 2018 04:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.4
          07 Jan 2018 04:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 10:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 09:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 06:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 06:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 09:00 Savana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Esama Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 16:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 06:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 06:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 06:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 16:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 16:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 16:00 Amboboka Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 16:00 Ampataka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 22:00 Bemahala Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 17:00 Sarahanonoy Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 17:00 Ampatsinakoho Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 23:00 Amboananto Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 21:00 Vodivola Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 06:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 06:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 06:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
          09 Jan 2018 00:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
          09 Jan 2018 00:00 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
          09 Jan 2018 00:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
          09 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Mitriaky Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Amberio Madagascar  0.1