Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
03 Jan 2018 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (05 Jan 12:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 120 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      120 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 360000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 111 11.4 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 111 13.8 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 120 13.4 million 360 thousand Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.2, 52.6
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.4, 52.9
          GREEN
          		 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16, 53.1
          GREEN
          		 4 04 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 26000 people -16.6, 52.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 4 04 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 1.7 million people -17, 51.6 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 4 05 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 360000 people 8.1 million people -17.4, 50.6 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 4 05 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 12.4 million people -18.1, 49.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 6.9 million people -20.6, 48.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 4 07 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 360000 people -23.5, 48.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 4 08 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -26.1, 48.4
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Tamatave, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Jan 2018 12:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (109 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 03 Jan 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 20:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 20:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 20:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 13:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 10:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 10:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 13:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 21:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Savana Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 13:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 13:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 15:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 20:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 15:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 20:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 15:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 13:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1