Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
04 Jan 2018 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (05 Jan 17:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 130 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      130 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 470000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 111 11.4 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 111 13.8 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 120 13.4 million 360 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.4 million 970 thousand Madagascar
        Red 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 130 18.2 million 1.8 million Madagascar
        Orange 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 130 16.5 million 6 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 130 17.2 million 1.1 million Madagascar
        Orange 9 04 Jan 2018 18:00 130 17.6 million 470 thousand Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.2, 52.6
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.4, 52.9
          GREEN
          		 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16, 53.1
          GREEN
          		 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 16000 people -16.6, 53.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.2 million people -17.3, 52.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.7 million people -17.8, 52.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 3.6 million people -17.4, 51.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 9 04 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 4.3 million people -17.3, 51 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 9 05 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 470000 people 11.8 million people -17.6, 50.1 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 9 05 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 14.7 million people -18.3, 49.5 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 9 06 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 14.8 million people -19.6, 49.1 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 9 06 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 14.5 million people -21, 49 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 9 07 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 no people 6.1 million people -23.4, 49.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 9 08 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 no people 2.6 million people -25.2, 48.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 9 09 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -27.2, 47.5
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Tamatave, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Jan 2018 17:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (187 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 04 Jan 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 20:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 05:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 16:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 04:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 04:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 09:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 10:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 10:00 Esama Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 13:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 06:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 13:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 10:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 10:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 10:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Amberio Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 03:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 03:00 Savana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 10:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 14:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 04:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 05:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 04:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Mitriaky Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 12:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 09:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 15:00 Ampatsinakoho Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 14:00 Ampataka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 14:00 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Antanandava Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Ampasimpolaka Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 10:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 08:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 21:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Amboananto Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Maroloha Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Belay Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Analapetsa Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Elanja Madagascar  0.1