Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Glide number: TC-2018-000152-CHN
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population 61.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (11 Sep 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 204 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

204 km/h Current

Up to 160000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon)
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.9, 164.3
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, 161.3
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13.7, 158.2
GREEN
2 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 13.6, 155
ORANGE
2 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 148 210000 people 160000 people 13.1, 149.3
ORANGE
2 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 3 204 210000 people 160000 people 13.4, 145
GREEN
2 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 14.9, 140.7
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Guam

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Guam Guam 140000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people 2384 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 2333 km
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0 2365 km
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0 2379 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 2343 km
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam 2392 km
Apra Harbor Guam 2398 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Upi, Guam. This height is estimated for 11 Sep 2018 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (36 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 07 Sep 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Upi Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Tamuning Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Sinajana Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Asan Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Hagatna Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Mongmong Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Oceanview Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Dededo Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Piti Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Inarajan Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Merizo Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Umatac Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 06:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Adacao Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Asatdas Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Agat Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Yona Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Barrigada Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Talofofo Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Ylig Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
11 Sep 2018 05:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
11 Sep 2018 06:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.1