Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TARA-18
in Mexico
17 Oct 2018 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone TARA-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 148 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (16 Oct 18:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 56 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 148 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      56 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 39000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 11 17 Oct 2018 00:00 56 40 thousand No people Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 14 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 16.9, -102.6
          GREEN
          		 2 14 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 17.3, -103.8
          GREEN
          		 3 15 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 17.5, -104.2
          GREEN
          		 4 15 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 17.5, -104.2
          GREEN
          		 5 15 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 17.6, -104.4
          GREEN
          		 6 15 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 18, -104.5
          GREEN
          		 7 16 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 18.3, -104.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 8 16 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 65000 people 18.6, -104.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 9 16 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 18.6, -104.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 10 16 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people <1000 people 18.9, -104.9 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 11 17 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 19.8, -105.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 11 17 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 20.4, -105.9 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Jalisco Mexico

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          La Gloria 34 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          El Tabaco Mexico
          Chamela Mexico
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.1 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Estrecho, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Oct 2018 18:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (5 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 16 Oct 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          16 Oct 2018 18:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
          17 Oct 2018 04:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
          16 Oct 2018 22:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
          16 Oct 2018 21:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
          16 Oct 2018 17:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1