Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico


Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Glide number: TC-2018-000168-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 190 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (24 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)


GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 167 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 250 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)


167 km/h Current

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Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Green 1 20 Oct 2018 09:00 185 Few people affected No people Mexico
Green 2 20 Oct 2018 15:00 185 7 thousand No people Mexico
Orange 3 20 Oct 2018 21:00 148 3.3 million 140 thousand Mexico
Orange 4 21 Oct 2018 03:00 167 3 million 190 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

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Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Exposed population


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Populated places

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Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.


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Nuclear plants

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Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.



No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.