Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for YUTU-18
in Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
22 Oct 2018 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone YUTU-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
    Exposed population 11 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (25 Oct 02:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 176 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 287 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      176 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 46000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 231 210 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Red 2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Red 3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Orange 4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people <1000 people 8.4, 157.6
          GREEN
          		 2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people <1000 people 8.6, 156.8
          GREEN
          		 3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 9, 155.9
          GREEN
          		 4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people <1000 people 9.8, 155
          GREEN
          		 4 22 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people <1000 people 11, 153.2
          GREEN
          		 4 23 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 12, 151.6
          GREEN
          		 4 23 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 2 157 no people 52000 people 13.1, 149.9 Guam
          ORANGE
          		 4 24 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 46000 people 210000 people 14.2, 148.3 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 4 25 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 3 204 no people 210000 people 16, 145.4 Guam
          GREEN
          		 4 26 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 17.9, 143.1
          GREEN
          		 4 27 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 20.1, 140.5
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Northern Mariana Is.

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Saipan Northern Mariana Islands Capital 62000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700
          Nikko 18 0
          Commonwealth Health Center 5 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Saipan MPSPN Northern Mariana Islands
          Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Garapan, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2018 02:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (12 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 22 Oct 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          25 Oct 2018 02:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          25 Oct 2018 02:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          25 Oct 2018 02:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          25 Oct 2018 02:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          25 Oct 2018 01:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          25 Oct 2018 01:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          24 Oct 2018 23:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          24 Oct 2018 23:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          24 Oct 2018 23:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          25 Oct 2018 00:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          25 Oct 2018 00:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          25 Oct 2018 01:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.1