Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for XAVIER-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone XAVIER-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 93 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 74 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 93 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

74 km/h Current

Up to 950000 people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 02 Nov 2018 21:00 83 No people No people
Green 2 03 Nov 2018 03:00 83 No people No people
Green 3 03 Nov 2018 09:00 83 No people No people
Green 4 03 Nov 2018 15:00 93 No people No people
Green 5 03 Nov 2018 21:00 93 No people No people
Green 6 04 Nov 2018 03:00 93 No people No people
Green 7 04 Nov 2018 09:00 93 No people No people
Green 8 04 Nov 2018 15:00 83 No people No people
Green 9 04 Nov 2018 21:00 83 980 thousand No people Mexico
Green 10 05 Nov 2018 03:00 83 1 million No people Mexico
Green 11 05 Nov 2018 09:00 93 1 million No people Mexico
Green 12 05 Nov 2018 15:00 93 1 million No people Mexico
Green 13 05 Nov 2018 21:00 83 1 million No people Mexico
Green 14 06 Nov 2018 00:00 74 960 thousand No people Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 02 Nov 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -109.2
GREEN
2 03 Nov 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.4, -108.5
GREEN
3 03 Nov 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -107.9
GREEN
4 03 Nov 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.1, -107.2
GREEN
5 03 Nov 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.3, -106.3
GREEN
6 04 Nov 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.8, -105.9
GREEN
7 04 Nov 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 16.3, -105.8
GREEN
8 04 Nov 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 17.4, -105.3
GREEN
9 04 Nov 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 920000 people no people 17.9, -105.4 Mexico
GREEN
10 05 Nov 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 670000 people no people 18.3, -105.6 Mexico
GREEN
11 05 Nov 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 240000 people no people 18.3, -105.8 Mexico
GREEN
12 05 Nov 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 87000 people no people 18.4, -106 Mexico
GREEN
13 05 Nov 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 18.8, -106.5
GREEN
14 06 Nov 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 19, -107.2
GREEN
14 06 Nov 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 19.2, -108.5
GREEN
14 07 Nov 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 19.3, -109.7
GREEN
14 07 Nov 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 19.2, -110.9 Mexico
GREEN
14 08 Nov 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 19.1, -112
GREEN
14 09 Nov 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 28 no people no people 18.8, -113.4
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Jalisco Mexico 5.7 million people
Colima Mexico 460000 people
Michoacan Mexico 3.8 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Manzanillo Colima Mexico City 100000 people 303 km
Autlán Jalisco Mexico City 39000 people 310 km
Armería Colima Mexico City 15000 people 342 km
Tecomán Colima Mexico City 75000 people 350 km
Colima Colima Mexico Major city 120000 people 366 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
La Gloria 34 0 221 km
Playa de Oro International ZLO 8 Civ. Paved Yes 7200 278 km
Autlan 884 0 312 km
Coahuayana 61 0 373 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Ipala Mexico 218 km
El Tabaco Mexico 221 km
Chamela Mexico 229 km
Manzanillo MXZLO Mexico 302 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976 244 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 06 Nov 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)