Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PENNY-18
in Australia, Papua New Guinea
01 Jan 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PENNY-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Australia, Papua New Guinea
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 120 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1.6 m (01 Jan 01:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Papua New Guinea)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 120 km/h 0.9 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 120 km/h 1.6 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      120 km/h Current Max.

      Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 31 Dec 2018 00:00 102 330 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 2 31 Dec 2018 06:00 102 250 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 3 31 Dec 2018 12:00 102 320 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 4 31 Dec 2018 18:00 111 440 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 5 01 Jan 2019 00:00 111 70 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 6 01 Jan 2019 06:00 120 650 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 7 01 Jan 2019 12:00 120 180 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 31 Dec 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 18000 people -12.8, 139.6 Australia
          GREEN
          		 2 31 Dec 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 7400 people -12.5, 139.3 Australia
          GREEN
          		 3 31 Dec 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 18000 people -12.5, 140.2 Australia
          GREEN
          		 4 31 Dec 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 19000 people -12.7, 140.6 Australia
          GREEN
          		 5 01 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 19000 people -12.6, 141.2 Australia
          GREEN
          		 6 01 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 14000 people -12.6, 142.3 Australia
          GREEN
          		 7 01 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 16000 people -12.7, 143 Australia
          GREEN
          		 7 02 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 95000 people -12.9, 145.5 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 7 02 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 140000 people -13.4, 148.4 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 7 03 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 24000 people -14.2, 151.8 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 7 03 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -15, 154.6
          GREEN
          		 7 04 Jan 2019 12:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -16.5, 156.7
          GREEN
          		 7 05 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -17.9, 155
          GREEN
          		 7 06 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -19.5, 152.6
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          1.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.6m in Sarire, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 01 Jan 2019 01:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (257 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 01 Jan 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Sarire Indonesia  1.6
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Tamarike Indonesia  1.6
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Kumbe Indonesia  1.5
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Anansai Indonesia  1.5
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Merauke Indonesia  1.5
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Wendu Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Matara Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Urum Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Onggalie Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Kotad Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Dumande Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Alatepi Indonesia  1.3
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Port Kennedy Australia  1.2
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Hammond I Australia  1.1
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Taroea Anim Indonesia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Seisia Australia  1.1
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Welab Indonesia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Alakoe Indonesia  1.1
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Papisote Indonesia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 06:00 Cowel Creek Australia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Mapoon Australia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Badu Australia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Moegaigare Indonesia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Jara Papua New Guinea  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 05:00 Bula Papua New Guinea  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 06:00 Cape York Australia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Birab Indonesia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Okaba Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Otsjanep Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Gelib Indonesia  0.9
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Sidabadu Papua New Guinea  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Jow Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Biwarlaut Indonesia  0.9
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Kobiem Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Per Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Agats Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Amborip Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Wamal Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Kladar Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Sabon Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Tor Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 13:00 Dolatanden Indonesia  0.8
          31 Dec 2018 21:00 Komoran Indonesia  0.8
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Alyangula Australia  0.7
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Saibai Australia  0.7
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Waidoro Papua New Guinea  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 21:00 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Wan Indonesia  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Konerau Indonesia  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Selemit Indonesia  0.6
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Weipa Australia  0.6
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Weipa South Australia  0.6
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Numbulwar Australia  0.6
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Amamapare Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Ndapurutiri Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Sanindara Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 09:00 Timuka Indonesia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 02:00 Caburinga Village Australia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Keawkwa Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 18:00 Running Creek Australia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Mimako Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Agatebi Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Sakaoeni Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Ipirawea Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Naoer Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Sajengga Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Basada Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Kobroor Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Masian Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Pono Indonesia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Tanam Indonesia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 13:00 Kamboeriami Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Moegoetira Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Amar Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Uta Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Aloszville Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Aoem Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Tambani Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Doka Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Djoering Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Wakia Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Longar Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Baimoeh Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Nhulunbuy Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Kinara Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Kobadangar Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Umuk Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Gomo Gomo Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Krai Indonesia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Lower Tully Australia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Sege Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 18:00 Ok Village Australia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 05:00 South Mission Beach Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Paraoka Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Kipia Maparpa Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Yirrkala Mission Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Yirrkala Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Oud Krai Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Krei-lama Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 02:00 Halifax Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Gove Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Kedjabi Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 13:00 Rabal Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 13:00 Kangoerma Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Kaisweri Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 02:00 Cassady Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 20:00 Coolbie Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 20:00 Moongobulla Australia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Saga Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Inanwatatan Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Mutarnee Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 02:00 Lucinda Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Tarera Indonesia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Te Kowai Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Rosella Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Chelona Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Glenella Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Bakers Creek Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 North Mackay Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Mackay Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Cremorne Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Hay Point Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Taffy Islet Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Alligator Creek Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Aiduna Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Umari Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 13:00 Djamboeai Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 13:00 Barakan Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Kulinchin Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 09:00 Diommon Indonesia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Slade Point Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Amhurst Australia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 09:00 Hekampan Papua New Guinea  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 09:00 Tagula Papua New Guinea  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 07:00 Ture Ture Papua New Guinea  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Bendjoering Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 21:00 Aibinio Papua New Guinea  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Wadjin Indonesia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Midgeton Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Etowri Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Nindaroo Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Bucasia Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Eimeo Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Andergrove Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Blacks Beach Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Cooktown Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Mossman Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Miallo Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Wonga Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Port Douglas Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Hockley Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 19:00 Elim Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Ayton Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Goemsei Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Mohitien Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Potawai Indonesia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Cannonvale Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Airlie Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Komfane Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 08:00 Hamlet of Togo Papua New Guinea  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 08:00 Mabaduan Papua New Guinea  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 20:00 Rollingstone Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 20:00 Kinduro Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 03:00 Kamma Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 03:00 Yarrabah Aboriginal Community Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 06:00 Deeral Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 06:00 Bellenden Ker Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Carmila Australia  0.2
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Flaggy Rock Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Alardjir Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Karaum Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Masidan Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Innisfail Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Ngaibor Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Marlasi Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Keakalo Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Gogsiba Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Gadaisu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Bona Bona I Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Auneri Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Silo Silo Papua New Guinea  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Farnborough Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Emu Park Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Yeppoon Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Rebi Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Loetoer Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Sewer Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Karwai Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Keojabi Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Moha Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Trinity Beach Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 08:00 Kadawa Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Apeawa Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Babai Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Avioua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Veraibari Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Tovai Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Mirimairau Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Uramu I Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Kaivu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Mairipepea Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Moravamu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Kamaua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Barron Falls Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Freshwater Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Yorkeys Knob Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Stratford Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 19:00 Oolbun Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Tanisepta Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Ranibo Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Degen Indonesia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Inveroona Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Queens Beach Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Elalie Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Fatural Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Jerdera Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Fekfekai Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 21:00 Kaduaga Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Maubi Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 22:00 Ubua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Iuku Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Herekera Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Haiara Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Ihu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Vailala Hiloi Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Iori Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Vailala East Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Karokaro Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Opa Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Belepa Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Kea Kea Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Ovahuhu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Aivau Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Kapide Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Petoe Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 09:00 Murua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Carstairs Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Jarvisfield Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 19:00 Alva Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Rita Island Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 23:00 Kalarka Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 23:00 Clairview Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 23:00 Saint Lawrence Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 12:00 Seaforth Australia  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 02:00 Kasabanalua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 02:00 Samarai Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 02:00 Sidudu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 02:00 Magesina Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 02:00 Sideia I Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 02:00 Tegerauna Mission Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Griffin Point Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Madaua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Pantava Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Bwagimogimo Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Rambuso Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 05:00 Rewe Papua New Guinea  0.1