Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
20 Jan 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (21 Jan 19:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 93 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 102 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      93 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 5.6 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
        Green 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 93 5.6 million No people Mozambique, Malawi

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 880000 people -22.9, 38.8 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 2.3 million people -21.3, 38.9 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 2 21 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 3.6 million people -19.6, 38.3 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 2 21 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 4.7 million people -18.3, 37.6 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 2 22 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -17.4, 36.9 Mozambique
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mozambique
          Malawi

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Inhambane Mozambique
          Sofala Mozambique
          Zambezia Mozambique
          Nampula Mozambique
          Tete Mozambique
          Southern Malawi

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Maxixe Mozambique City 120000 people
          Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 190000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
          Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
          Chinde INE unknown 0
          Luabo LBM unknown 0
          Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
          Pebane PEB unknown 0
          Inhaminga IMG unknown 0
          Bajone BJN unknown 0
          Moma MMW unknown 0
          Mutarara 48 0
          Nsanje 61 Civ. Unpaved No 3200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Inhambane MZINH Mozambique
          Bazaruto Island Mozambique
          Vilanculas Mozambique
          Chinde MZINE Mozambique
          Vila Do Chinde Mozambique
          Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique
          Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique
          Pebane MZPEB Mozambique
          Rio Moebase Mozambique
          Moma MZMMW Mozambique
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.7 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Chamba, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2019 19:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (105 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 20 Jan 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Beira Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 16:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 16:00 Amado Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Barra Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 22:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Manica Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 15:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Tama Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
          20 Jan 2019 15:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
          20 Jan 2019 09:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 02:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 20:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 11:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 10:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 02:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 05:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 10:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 03:00 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 20:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 10:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 04:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 10:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 10:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 04:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 16:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 04:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 09:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 01:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 00:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 04:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 19:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 17:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1