Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
07 Oct 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
    Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (11 Oct 12:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 204 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 278 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      204 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 8.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Orange 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 148 220 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Orange 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 148 1.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 250 800 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
        Green 8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 259 6 million No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
        Green 9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 278 63.7 million 20 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
        Orange 10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 204 101 million 8.9 million Japan

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
          GREEN
          		 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.2, 154.1
          GREEN
          		 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, 152.4
          GREEN
          		 7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 no people 53000 people 14.9, 151.1 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 3 185 no people 220000 people 15.1, 149.5 Guam
          GREEN
          		 9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 241 <1000 people 220000 people 15.5, 148.2 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 259 no people 220000 people 16.1, 146.7 Guam
          GREEN
          		 10 08 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 5 278 no people 220000 people 17.2, 144 Guam
          GREEN
          		 10 08 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 18.3, 141.8
          GREEN
          		 10 09 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 5 259 no people <1000 people 19.5, 140.2
          GREEN
          		 10 09 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 250 no people <1000 people 20.9, 139
          GREEN
          		 10 10 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 231 no people 48000 people 24.1, 136.8 Japan
          ORANGE
          		 10 11 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 3 204 9 million people 100.8 million people 28.1, 135 Japan
          GREEN
          		 10 12 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 33.7, 136.7 Japan
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Japan

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Chubu Japan
          Kinki Japan

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Kushimoto Wakayama Japan City -
          Shingu Wakayama Japan City 31000 people
          Arai Shizuoka Japan City -
          Tanabe Wakayama Japan City 69000 people
          Toyohashi Aichi Japan City 380000 people
          Ise Mie Japan City 97000 people
          Toyokawa Aichi Japan City 120000 people
          Toyohama Aichi Japan City -
          Nishio Aichi Japan City 100000 people
          Koyasan Wakayama Japan City -
          Okazaki Aichi Japan City 350000 people
          Handa Aichi Japan City 110000 people
          Tsu Mie Japan Major city 160000 people
          Tokoname Aichi Japan City 49000 people
          Kariya Aichi Japan City 140000 people
          Kainan Wakayama Japan City 43000 people
          Sakurai Nara Japan City 63000 people
          Nagano Nara Japan City -
          Suzuka Mie Japan City 190000 people
          Kashihara Nara Japan City 120000 people
          Yokkaichi Mie Japan City 290000 people
          Tondabayashi Osaka Japan City 130000 people
          Ueno Mie Japan City 61000 people
          Kokubu Nara Japan City -
          Izumi Osaka Japan City 190000 people
          Nara Nara Japan Major city 360000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Kushimoto-Katsuura KUJ unknown 0
          Nanki Shirahama SHM 105 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
          6 0
          Shinodayama 15 0
          Yao 12 Civ. Paved Yes 4800

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands
          Guguan Island Northern Mariana Islands
          Kushimoto Japan
          Uraga JPURG Japan
          Shingu JPSHN Japan
          Hamamatsu JPHMM Japan
          Owase JPOWA Japan
          Tanabe JPTAE Japan
          Toba JPTOB Japan
          Toyohashi JPTHS Japan
          Ise JPISE Japan
          Atsumi JPATM Japan
          Gamagori JPGAM Japan
          Matsuzaka Japan
          Kinuura JPKNU Japan
          Tsu JPTSU Japan
          Kainan JPKAI Japan
          Yokkaichi JPYKK Japan

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Nanairochosuichi Nanairo Kitayamagawa 1965
          Kamiji Kamiji Kamijigawa 1972
          Ikeharako Ikehara Kitayamagawa 1964
          Sakamotochosuichi Sakamoto Higashinogawa 1962
          Hattachiike Hattachiike Toyokawa 1966
          Kazeyachosuichi Kazeya Totsugawa 1960
          Osugiko Miyagawa Miyagawa 1956
          Okuiseko Misetani Miyagawa 1966
          Gokatsuraike Gokatsuraike 1678
          Asahichosuichi Asahi Asahigawa 1978
          Komanbachoseichi Komanba Toyokawa 1968
          Osakochosuichi Osako Kinokawa 1973
          Nameriko Nameriko Nakamuragawa 1973
          Futagawa Futagawa Aritagawa 1966
          Tsuburoko Tsuburo Tsuburogawa 1962
          Kimigano Kimigano Hatsutematagawa 1971
          Maeyamaike Maeyama Maeyamakawa 1990
          Katada Katada Naganogawa 1929
          1998
          Shorenjiko Shorenji Shorenjigawa 1970
          Murooko Murou Udagawa 1973
          Souriike Souri Shinanogawa 1965
          Shakujoko Ano Anogawa 1990
          Takihata Takihata Ishikawa 1981
          Kasatochoseichi Kasatochoseichi Shiyamagawa 1983
          Horigo Horigo Horigogawa 1969
          Midoroike Midoro Hinogkawa 1970
          Tashiroko Tashiroike Takikawa 1895
          Komyoike Komyoike Makiogawa 1936
          Sayamaike Sayamaike Nishiyokegawa 2001
          Tsukigaseko Takayama Nabarigawa 1968
          Oharachosuichi Ohara Oharagawa 1960
          Onoike Onoike Makiogawa 1940
          Yasugawa Yasugawa 2009
          Ozuchi Ozuchi Yasugawa 1987
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.1 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Kisaki, Japan. This height is estimated for 11 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (77 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 07 Oct 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kisaki Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Tachibandori Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Oryuzako Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Haruguchi Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kaminaka Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Sakai Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takesaki Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Sumiyoshi Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hirayama Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hirota Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hamada Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Osaki Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Aburatsu Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hayama Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takabo Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Miyazaki Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Niinauri Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Udo Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Meitsu Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Karijuku Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takanabe Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Uwae Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Araki Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Uekatsu Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Akatsure Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Urabaru Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Aden Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Somachi Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shitooke Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimonaka Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Mitariyama Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Miza Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Noma Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Fukagawa Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hamatsuwaki Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takenokawa Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Makigawa Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takeyano Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Odaira Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Onasu Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Jusamban Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nijuban Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nakayama Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Jurokuban Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kurazami Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nishinoomote Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Masuda Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kerisaki Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Komakino Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Osaki Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Yakenota Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Yokoyama Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ikenohira Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kunigami Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kunikami Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Anjo Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Tachiyama Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ono Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Yanagihara Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Azako Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Guniwa Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Anno Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Minato Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Iseki Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shoiiura Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimama Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ushino Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimo-Nishime Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nishino Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Miyanoura Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nakamura Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimo-Tashima Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ambo Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Funayuki Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Higashi Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Igatan Japan  0.1
          11 Oct 2019 12:00 Tomai Japan  0.1