Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for KAMMURI-19
in Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
28 Nov 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone KAMMURI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
    Exposed population 34.9 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 213 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (02 Dec 12:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Philippines)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 222 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 213 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      222 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.4 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 25 Nov 2019 18:00 194 160 thousand No people Guam
        Green 2 26 Nov 2019 00:00 213 170 thousand No people Guam
        Green 3 26 Nov 2019 06:00 213 220 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 4 26 Nov 2019 12:00 213 230 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 5 26 Nov 2019 18:00 222 220 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 6 27 Nov 2019 00:00 213 230 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 7 27 Nov 2019 06:00 213 230 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 8 27 Nov 2019 12:00 231 230 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 9 27 Nov 2019 18:00 231 1.4 million No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
        Green 10 28 Nov 2019 00:00 241 23 million No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
        Orange 11 28 Nov 2019 06:00 222 77.7 million 350 thousand Philippines
        Orange 12 28 Nov 2019 12:00 222 75.2 million 2.4 million Philippines

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 25 Nov 2019 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 9.2, 151
          GREEN
          		 2 26 Nov 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 170000 people 10.1, 149.8 Guam
          GREEN
          		 3 26 Nov 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 220000 people 11, 147.3 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 4 26 Nov 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 220000 people 11.3, 145.2 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 5 26 Nov 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 170000 people 11.5, 143.5 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 6 27 Nov 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 170000 people 11.7, 142.3 Guam
          GREEN
          		 7 27 Nov 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 11000 people 11.5, 140.9
          GREEN
          		 8 27 Nov 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 11000 people 11.3, 140.3
          GREEN
          		 9 27 Nov 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 12.3, 139.4
          GREEN
          		 10 28 Nov 2019 00:00 Category 1 130 no people <1000 people 11.7, 138.9
          GREEN
          		 11 28 Nov 2019 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 12.8, 138.5
          GREEN
          		 12 28 Nov 2019 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 13.6, 138.4
          GREEN
          		 12 29 Nov 2019 00:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.5, 137.9
          GREEN
          		 12 29 Nov 2019 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.6, 137.4
          GREEN
          		 12 30 Nov 2019 00:00 Category 2 176 no people no people 14.3, 136.2
          GREEN
          		 12 30 Nov 2019 12:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14, 134.3
          GREEN
          		 12 01 Dec 2019 12:00 Category 4 231 no people 2.3 million people 14, 130.2 Philippines
          ORANGE
          		 12 02 Dec 2019 12:00 Category 4 222 2.5 million people 74.9 million people 14.2, 127.1 Philippines
          GREEN
          		 12 03 Dec 2019 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.1, 122.6 Philippines
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Philippines

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Bicol Philippines
          Southern Tagalog Philippines

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Naga Bicol Philippines City 140000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Daet DTE 3 Civ. Paved No 3700
          Larap 5 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Virac Catanduanes Island Philippines
          Tabaco / Legaspi PHTBC Philippines
          Tandoc PHTDC Philippines
          Mercedes Philippines
          Paracale Philippines
          Jose Panganiban PHJPM Philippines
          Port Ragay Philippines
          Dahikan Philippines
          Aloneros Philippines
          Hondagua / Siain PHHON Philippines
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Pequit, Philippines. This height is estimated for 02 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (49 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 28 Nov 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Pequit Philippines  0.3
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Pabanong Philippines  0.3
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Hinabangan Philippines  0.3
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Wright Philippines  0.3
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Mualbual Philippines  0.3
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Bangon Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 San Andres Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Tatabunan Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Narombacan Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Guintampilan Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Bagacay Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Macalonud Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Babatngon Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Catbalogan Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Barceloneta Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Bikal Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Bantayan Philippines  0.2
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Bagas Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Pagsanjan Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Daram Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Barugo Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Miguel Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Culaba Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Tabojab Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Caibiran Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Paet Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Rizal Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Igot Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Carigara Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Madridejos Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Sillon Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Balaton Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Garchitorena Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Mapid Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Santa Margarita Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 San Vicente Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Silanga Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Capitun-an Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Bahay Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Calubian Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Lico Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Tucdao Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Biliran Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Cabucgayan Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Bonga Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Capoocan Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Mandao Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Barana Philippines  0.1
          02 Dec 2019 12:00 Sugud Philippines  0.1