GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOAQUIN-15
in Bahamasfrom 28 Sep 2015 03:00 UTC to 30 Sep 2015 15:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone JOAQUIN-15

Green alert for storm surge impact in The Bahamas

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 11 of tropical cyclone JOAQUIN-15 issued at 30 Sep 2015 15:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000220). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.


Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): No people affected
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 4
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 250 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Pitts Town, The Bahamas. This height is estimated for 02 Oct 2015 05:00:00.


Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

Show forecast grid


eSurge eSurge was activated for this event: Advanced storm surge products (eSurge)

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
02 Oct 2015 05:00:00 Pitts Town The Bahamas  0.8m
02 Oct 2015 01:00:00 Moss Town The Bahamas  0.8m
02 Oct 2015 01:00:00 Cabbage Hill The Bahamas  0.8m
01 Oct 2015 23:00:00 Majors The Bahamas  0.8m
02 Oct 2015 17:00:00 Port Nelson The Bahamas  0.7m
02 Oct 2015 18:00:00 Victoria Hill The Bahamas  0.7m
02 Oct 2015 19:00:00 Dixons The Bahamas  0.7m
02 Oct 2015 09:00:00 Roses The Bahamas  0.6m
01 Oct 2015 18:00:00 Browns The Bahamas  0.6m
01 Oct 2015 18:00:00 Chesters The Bahamas  0.6m
02 Oct 2015 05:00:00 South Pt The Bahamas  0.6m
02 Oct 2015 09:00:00 Clarence Town The Bahamas  0.4m
02 Oct 2015 15:00:00 Pinders The Bahamas  0.4m
02 Oct 2015 03:00:00 Albert Town The Bahamas  0.4m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 728)
Calculation based on advisory number 42 of 08 Oct 2015 03:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.