GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOAQUIN-15
in Bahamasfrom 28 Sep 2015 03:00 UTC to 30 Sep 2015 15:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone JOAQUIN-15
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Green alert for storm surge impact in The Bahamas

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 11 of tropical cyclone JOAQUIN-15 issued at 30 Sep 2015 15:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000220).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): No people affected
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 4
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 250 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Dixons, The Bahamas. This height is estimated for 01 Oct 2015 22:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

Show forecast grid

Observation

eSurge eSurge was activated for this event: Advanced storm surge products (eSurge)

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
01 Oct 2015 22:00:00 Dixons The Bahamas  0.6m
04 Oct 2015 15:00:00 California United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 15:00:00 Mother Vineyard United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 15:00:00 Manteo United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 15:00:00 Wanchese United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 15:00:00 Powells Point United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 15:00:00 Mamie United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 15:00:00 Point Harbor United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 15:00:00 Colington United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 15:00:00 Fort Raleigh City United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 15:00:00 Manns Harbor United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 10:00:00 Atlantic United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 11:00:00 Sealevel United States  0.5m
04 Oct 2015 15:00:00 Glenwood Park United States  0.5m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 595)
Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 30 Sep 2015 15:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.