GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for CHAPALA-15
from 28 Oct 2015 18:00 UTC to 31 Oct 2015 06:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone CHAPALA-15

Green alert for storm surge impact

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 11 of tropical cyclone CHAPALA-15 issued at 31 Oct 2015 6:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000233). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.


Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 340 thousand
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 4
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 250 km/h
  • The tropical cyclone did not reach sufficient strength to cause significant storm surge. No calculations were performed.


Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number


eSurge eSurge was activated for this event: Advanced storm surge products (eSurge)

Storm surge

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

No locations affected.

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.