GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Green Tropical Cyclone alert in United States for HERMINE-16 from 28 Aug 2016 21:00 UTC to 06 Sep 2016 18:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone HERMINE-16
Beta
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Orange alert for storm surge impact in United States

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 12 of tropical cyclone HERMINE-16 issued at 31 Aug 2016 15:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000299).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): No people affected
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 1
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 130 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  2.0m in Dekle Beach, United States. This height is estimated for 02 Sep 2016 06:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

Show forecast grid

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
02 Sep 2016 06:00:00 Dekle Beach United States  2.0m
02 Sep 2016 06:00:00 Keaton Beach United States  2.0m
02 Sep 2016 06:00:00 Fish Creek United States  2.0m
02 Sep 2016 06:00:00 Dallus Creek Landing United States  2.0m
02 Sep 2016 06:00:00 Steinhatchee United States  1.9m
02 Sep 2016 06:00:00 Jena United States  1.9m
02 Sep 2016 06:00:00 Horseshoe Beach United States  1.7m
02 Sep 2016 06:00:00 Shired Island United States  1.6m
02 Sep 2016 06:00:00 Suwannee United States  1.6m
02 Sep 2016 06:00:00 Cedar Key United States  1.3m
02 Sep 2016 04:00:00 Surf United States  1.3m
02 Sep 2016 04:00:00 Sun N Sand Beaches United States  1.3m
02 Sep 2016 03:00:00 Carrabelle United States  1.0m
02 Sep 2016 03:00:00 Lanark Village United States  1.0m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 1356)
Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 31 Aug 2016 15:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.