GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Red Tropical Cyclone alert in United States, Bahamas, Cuba, Haiti for MATTHEW-16 from 28 Sep 2016 15:00 UTC to 09 Oct 2016 21:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone MATTHEW-16
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Orange alert for storm surge impact in The Bahamas

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 32 of tropical cyclone MATTHEW-16 issued at 6 Oct 2016 3:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000316).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 540 thousand
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 5
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 259 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  2.8m in Red Bay, The Bahamas. This height is estimated for 06 Oct 2016 17:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

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Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Oct 2016 17:00:00 Red Bay The Bahamas  2.8m
06 Oct 2016 18:00:00 New Town The Bahamas  2.0m
08 Oct 2016 00:00:00 East Mayport United States  1.6m
08 Oct 2016 01:00:00 Black Hammock United States  1.6m
08 Oct 2016 01:00:00 Amelia City United States  1.6m
08 Oct 2016 01:00:00 Fernandina Beach United States  1.6m
08 Oct 2016 01:00:00 Franklintown United States  1.6m
08 Oct 2016 01:00:00 American Beach United States  1.6m
08 Oct 2016 01:00:00 Mayport United States  1.6m
08 Oct 2016 01:00:00 Isle of Palms United States  1.6m
08 Oct 2016 01:00:00 Oak Harbor United States  1.6m
07 Oct 2016 16:00:00 Bethune Beach United States  1.5m
07 Oct 2016 16:00:00 Eldora United States  1.5m
08 Oct 2016 01:00:00 Dungeness United States  1.5m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 1236)
Calculation based on advisory number 32 of 06 Oct 2016 03:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.