GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANKLIN-17
in Mexicofrom 06 Aug 2017 21:00 UTC to 10 Aug 2017 09:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone FRANKLIN-17
Beta
alertimage

Green alert for storm surge impact in Mexico

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 15 of tropical cyclone FRANKLIN-17 issued at 10 Aug 2017 9:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000383).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 1.1 million
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 1
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 139 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 09 Aug 2017 03:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Show forecast grid

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Aug 2017 03:00:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.7m
09 Aug 2017 03:00:00 Sabancuy Mexico  0.7m
09 Aug 2017 03:00:00 Noham Mexico  0.7m
09 Aug 2017 02:00:00 Champoton Mexico  0.7m
09 Aug 2017 02:00:00 Haltunchen Mexico  0.7m
09 Aug 2017 02:00:00 Seybaplaya Mexico  0.7m
09 Aug 2017 03:00:00 Porfirio Diaz Mexico  0.7m
09 Aug 2017 03:00:00 Chenkan Mexico  0.7m
08 Aug 2017 23:00:00 Balantanche Mexico  0.7m
09 Aug 2017 01:00:00 Hoquel Mexico  0.6m
10 Aug 2017 05:00:00 El Laurel Mexico  0.5m
10 Aug 2017 05:00:00 Nautla Mexico  0.5m
08 Aug 2017 18:00:00 Paso Real Mexico  0.5m
10 Aug 2017 05:00:00 Vega de Alatorre Mexico  0.4m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 181)
Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 10 Aug 2017 09:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.