GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IRMA-17
in United States, Bahamas, Cuba, Turks and Caicos Islands, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Virgin Islands, British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbudafrom 30 Aug 2017 15:00 UTC to 12 Sep 2017 03:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone IRMA-17
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Red alert for storm surge impact in United States

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 52 of tropical cyclone IRMA-17 issued at 12 Sep 2017 3:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000393). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 240 thousand
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 5
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 296 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  3.1m in Dismal Key, United States. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2017 21:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

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Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2017 21:00:00 Dismal Key United States  3.1m
10 Sep 2017 22:00:00 Belle Meade United States  2.9m
10 Sep 2017 22:00:00 Caxambas United States  2.9m
10 Sep 2017 22:00:00 Goodland United States  2.9m
10 Sep 2017 22:00:00 Grocery Place United States  2.9m
10 Sep 2017 21:00:00 Shell Island United States  2.8m
10 Sep 2017 21:00:00 Naples Manor United States  2.8m
10 Sep 2017 21:00:00 Old Marco Junction United States  2.8m
10 Sep 2017 21:00:00 Isles of Capri United States  2.8m
10 Sep 2017 21:00:00 Marco United States  2.8m
11 Sep 2017 00:00:00 Forest Island Park United States  2.6m
11 Sep 2017 00:00:00 Coconut United States  2.6m
11 Sep 2017 00:00:00 Bonita Shores United States  2.6m
11 Sep 2017 00:00:00 Estero United States  2.6m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 950)
Calculation based on advisory number 49 of 11 Sep 2017 09:00:00.
(Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.